We propose a method based on control charts to identify in real-time sudden deposits' outflows through payment systems. The performance of the methodology is assessed with both Monte Carlo simulations and real transaction-level TARGET2 data for a large sample of Italian banks. We identify a set...

Using a comprehensive dataset of Italian SMEs, we find that differences between private and public information on firm creditworthiness affect the decision to issue traded debt securities. Specifically, holding public information constant, firms with better private fundamentals are more likely...

The literature has shown that in the short- and medium-term bank mergers and acquisitions (M&As) may generate a temporary reduction in firm credit. Using bank-firm matched data, this paper investigates the impact of M&As involving Italian banks over the period 2009-2019 on credit to firms,...

We empirically analyse the returns of both Italian and round-trip open-end funds managed by Italian asset management companies (SGRs) in the period 2003-2008. Taking into account a modified version of the capital asset pricing model (CAPM), we estimated a performance measure for each asset...

The no-arbitrage affine Gaussian term structure model is used to analyse the impact of macroeconomic surprises on the nominal and the real term structure in the euro area and in the United States. We find that nominal rates are affected by surprises in economic growth, the labour market and the...

This paper quantifies the impact on the cost of funding in repo markets of the initial margins applied by central clearing counterparties (CCPs). We have used contract-level data for the general collateral (GC) segment of Italy's MTS Repo market between January 2011 and April 2014. The analysis...

This paper studies over-the-counter (OTC) trading in the unsecured interbank market for euro funds. The goal of our analysis is to identify the determinants of the probability of trading, the bilateral rate and the quantity exchanged during the European sovereign debt crisis. We show how the...

The scapegoat theory of exchange rates (Bacchetta and van Wincoop 2004, 2013) suggests that market participants may attach excessive weight to individual economic fundamentals, which are picked as scapegoats to rationalize observed currency fluctuations at times when exchange rates are driven by...

The ratio between current earnings per share and share price (the EP ratio) is widely considered to be an effective gauge of under/over-valuation of a corporation's stock. Arguably, a more reliable indicator (the cyclically-adjusted EP ratio) can be obtained by replacing current earnings with a...

This paper uses the celebrated no-arbitrage affine Gaussian term structure model applied to index-linked and standard government bonds to derive expected inflation rates and inflation risk premia, in the euro area and in the US. Maximum likelihood estimates show that the model describes the...