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Local Interactions as a Decentralized Mechanism Coordinating Equilibrium Expectations
Hohnisch, Martin - 2005
expectations of neighboring agents. The particular specification of transition rates chosen in the present paper is known as the …-extremal invariant measures. The economic content of the stochastic expectations process is twofold. First, the convergence of the … expectations process itself constitutes a “sunspot-device”. While convergence to either one of the extremal invariant measures …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010263152
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Correlation Neglect in Belief Formation
Enke, Benjamin; Zimmermann, Florian - 2013
Many information structures generate correlated rather than mutually independent signals, the news media being a prime example. This paper shows experimentally that in such context many people neglect these correlations in the updating process and treat correlated information as independent. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010312978
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Local Interactions as a Decentralized Mechanism Coordinating Equilibrium Expectations
Hohnisch, Martin - University of Bonn, Germany - 2005
expectations of neighboring agents. The particular specification of transition rates chosen in the present paper is known as the …-extremal invariant measures. The economic content of the stochastic expectations process is twofold. First, the convergence of the … expectations process itself constitutes a “sunspot-device”. While convergence to either one of the extremal invariant measures …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10004968361
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Correlation Neglect in Belief Formation
Enke, Benjamin; Zimmermann, Florian - University of Bonn, Germany - 2013
Many information structures generate correlated rather than mutually independent signals, the news media being a prime example. This paper shows experimentally that in such context many people neglect these correlations in the updating process and treat correlated information as independent. In...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010895827
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Spotting the Danger Zone - Forecasting Financial Crises with Classification Tree Ensembles and Many Predictors
Ward, Felix - 2014
To improve the detection of the economic ”danger zones” from which severe banking crises emanate, this paper introduces classification tree ensembles to the banking crisis forecasting literature. I show that their out-of-sample performance in forecasting binary banking crisis indicators...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011434939
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Spotting the Danger Zone - Forecasting Financial Crises with Classification Tree Ensembles and Many Predictors
Ward, Felix - University of Bonn, Germany - 2014
To improve the detection of the economic ”danger zones” from which severe banking crises emanate, this paper introduces classification tree ensembles to the banking crisis forecasting literature. I show that their out-of-sample performance in forecasting binary banking crisis indicators...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010942487
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Information Disclosure in Innovation Contests
Rieck, Thomas - 2010
In innovation contests, the progress of the competing firms in the innovation process is usually their private information. We analyze an innovation contest in which research firms have a stochastic technology to develop innovations at a fixed cost, but their progress is publicly announced. We...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293366
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Randomization in contracts with endogenous information
Terstiege, Stefan - 2011
I consider a situation, where the agent can acquire payoff-relevant information either before or after the contract is signed. To raise efficiency, the principal might solicit information; to retain all surplus, however, she must prevent precontractual information gathering. The following class...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293370
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Wage floors and optimal job design
Kragl, Jenny; Schöttner, Anja - 2011
We analyze the effects of lower bounds on wages, e.g., minimum wages or liability limits, on job design within firms. In our model, two tasks contribute to non-veriable firm value and affect an imperfect performance measure. The tasks can be assigned to either one or two agents. In the absence...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293373
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Signaling in First-Price Auctions
Rieck, Thomas - 2010
It is commonly assumed in private value auctions that bidders have no information about the realization of the other bidders' valuations. Nevertheless, an informative public signal about the realization may be released by a bidder while he learns his own valuation. Using a simple discrete...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010293376