Using US micro price data at the city level, we provide evidence that both the volatility and the persistence of deviations from the law of one price (LOP) are rising in the distance between US cities. A standard, two-city, stochastic equilibrium model with trade costs can predict the...

This paper amends the New Keynesian Phillips curve model to include inflation volatility and tests the determinants of such volatility for India. It provides results on the determinants of inflation volatility and expected inflation volatility for OLS and ARDL (1,1) models and for change in...

We derive and estimate a New Keynesian Phillips curve (NKPC) in a model where consumers are assumed to have deep habits. Habits are deep in the sense that they apply to individual consumption goods instead of aggregate consumption. This alters the NKPC in a fundamental manner as it introduces...

This paper studies the joint dynamics of U.S. inflation and the average inflation predictions of the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) on a sample running from 1968Q4 to 2014Q2. The joint data generating process (DGP) of these data consists of the unobserved components (UC) model of Stock...

This paper generalizes the popular stochastic volatility in mean model of Koopman and Hol Uspensky (2002) to allow for time-varying parameters in the conditional mean. The estimation of this extension is nontrival since the volatility appears in both the conditional mean and the conditional...

The paper presents an agent based model to study the possible effects of different fiscal and monetary policies in the context of debt deflation. We introduce a modified Taylor rule which includes the financial position of firms as a target. Monte Carlo simulations show that an excessive...

Does excluding food and energy prices from the Consumer Price Index (CPI) produce a measure that captures permanent price changes? To examine this question we decompose CPI inflation and "core" inflation into their permanent and transitory components using a correlated unobserved components...

We present results from an extensive study on the benefits of rolling window and model averaging. Building on the recent work on rolling window averaging by Pesaran et al (2010, 2009) and on exchange rate forecasting by Molodtsova and Papell (2009), we explore whether rolling window averaging...

We present a new approach to study empirically the effect of the introduction of the euro on the pattern of currency invoicing. Our approach uses a compositional multi- nomial logit model, in which currency choice is explained by both currency-specific and country-specific determinants. We use...

We examine the effect of inflation variability and economic growth using annual historical data on both developing and developed countries. The data cover 182 developing countries and 31 developed countries for the period 1961-2009. Proxying inflation variability by the five-year coefficient of...