Recent estimates of convergence equations using panel data techniques tend to produce theoretically unpalatable results which run counter to the views prevailing in the literature. This paper argues that these results may be partly due to the difficulty of empirically separating short-term...

Recent tests for the convergence hypothesis derive from regressing average growth rates on initial levels: a negative initial level coefficient is interpreted as convergence. These tests turn out to be plagued by Francis Galton's classical fallacy of regression towards the mean. Using a dynamic...

This paper reviews the cross-country record of economic growth, using as organizing framework how economic theory has guided that empirical analysis. The paper argues that recent studies of economic growth - both empirical and theoretical - distinguish from previous work in three distinct ways:...

This paper analyzes performance of the transition economies in the Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries in terms of their convergence in selected macroeconomic fundamentals. The analysis uses monthly data on industrial output, money aggregate (M1), consumer prices and producer prices...

Cross-section or short-panel econometric techniques typically used to examine Gibrat’s Law of Proportionate Effect suggest that some degree of mean reversion exists, but may exaggerate the apparent randomness of corporate growth. We argue that a more natural way to explore the long-run...

We study the issue of income convergence across countries and regions with a Bayesian model which allows us to use information in an efficient and flexible way. We argue that the very slow convergence rates to a common level of per-capita income found, for example, by Barro and Sala-i-Martin, is...

This paper reinterprets a simple model of growth and fluctuations across many economies to allow for the explicit characterization of the dynamically-evolving cross-economy distribution of income. Such a framework provides a more natural, revealing study of the convergence hypothesis. The data...