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Short-term forecasts of euro area real GDP growth: an assessment of real-time performance based on vintage data

Diron, Marie - 2006

Economic policy makers, international organisations and private-sector forecasters commonly use short-term forecasts of real GDP growth based on monthly indicators, such as industrial production, retail sales and confidence surveys. An assessment of the reliability of such tools and of the...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604668

Short-Term Forecasts of Euro Area Real GDP Growth : An Assessment of Real-Time Performance Based on Vintage Data

Diron, Marie - 2021

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013317625

Putting the New Keynesian DSGE model to the real-time forecasting test

Kolasa, Marcin; Rubaszek, Michał; Skrzypczyński, Paweł - 2009

. Nevertheless, their forecasting properties are still barely explored. We fill this gap by comparing the quality of real … priors from a DSGE model. We show that the analyzed DSGE model is relatively successful in forecasting the US economy in the … accurate short-term forecasts for interest rates. Conditional on experts' now casts, however, the forecasting power of the DSGE …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605156

Inefficiency in Social Security Trust Funds Forecasts

Lahiri, Kajal; Zhang, Junyan; Zhao, Yongchen - 2021

We examine forecast accuracy and efficiency of the Social Security Administration’s projections for cost rate, trust fund balance, trust fund ratio made during 1980-2020 with horizons up to 95 years. We find that the reported deterioration in the accuracy of the forecasts during 2010’s has...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013313449

Understanding inflation persistence: a comparison of different models

Dixon, Huw; Kara, Engin - 2006

This paper adopts the Impulse-Response methodology to understand inflation persistence. It has often been argued that existing models of pricing fail to explain the persistence that we observe. We adopt a common general framework which allows for an explicit modelling of the distribution of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604718

Flow of conjunctural information and forecast of euro area economic activity

Drechsel, Katja; Maurin, Laurent - 2008

Euro area GDP and components are nowcast and forecast one quarter ahead. Based on a dataset of 163 series comprising the relevant monthly indicators, simple bridge equations with one explanatory variable are estimated for each. The individual forecasts generated by each equation are then pooled,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604971

Strategic interactions between fiscal and monetary authorities in a multi-country new-Keynesian model of a monetary union

Michalak, Tomasz; Engwerda, Jacob; Plasmans, Joseph - 2009

In this paper we consider a number of key issues related to the policy coordination in a monetary union that has been recently discussed in the literature. To this end we propose a multi-country New-Keynesian model of a monetary union cast in the framework of linear quadratic differential games....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264547

Ageing, funded pensions and the Dutch economy

Bovenberg, Ary Lans; Knaap, Thijs - 2005

This paper attempts to paint a coherent picture of the effects of ageing on a small, open, economy with large pension funds in different institutional settings. Quantitative scenarios are projected with an applied computable general equilibrium model with institutional details. We find that...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010272714

Macroeconometric modelling with a global perspective

Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem; Smith, Ron P. - 2006

This paper provides a synthesis and further development of a global modelling approach introduced in Pesaran, Schuermann and Weiner (2004), where country specific models in the form of VARX* structures are estimated relating a vector of domestic variables, xit, to their foreign counterparts,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276174

On identification of Bayesian DSGE models

Koop, Gary; Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem; Smith, Ron P. - 2011

In recent years there has been increasing concern about the identification of parameters in dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Given the structure of DSGE models it may be difficult to determine whether a parameter is identified. For the researcher using Bayesian methods, a...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276281

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