Showing 1 - 10 of 1,942
-switching models, and forecast combination to predict the dynamics in the S&P 500. First, we aggregate the weekly information of 115 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250734
Climate change is predicted to substantially alter forest growth. Optimally, forest owners should take these future changes into account when making rotation decisions today. However, the fundamental uncertainty surrounding climate change makes predicting these shifts hard. Hence, this paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012866409
We analyze the exchange rate forecasting performance under the assumption of selective attention. Although currency markets react to a variety of different information, we hypothesize that market participants process only a limited amount of information. Our analysis includes more than 100,000...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013245625
We examine forecast accuracy and efficiency of the Social Security Administration’s projections for cost rate, trust …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013313449
This paper provides a detailed assessment of the real-time forecast accuracy of a wide range of vector autoregressive …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012842676
uncertainty of a combined forecast should be interpreted as that of a typical forecaster randomly drawn from the pool. With a … some previously used measures significantly underestimate the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013251262
In this paper, we disentangle tax revenue forecast errors into influences stemming from wrong macroeconomic assumptions … the forecast errors of the energy tax and the sales taxes. For the overall tax sum, more than two-third of the error can … can reduce tax revenue forecast errors …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013222194
forecasts based on pooled and individual estimates and develop a novel forecast poolability test that can be used as a … stock returns, we show that no single forecasting approach dominates uniformly. However, forecast combination and shrinkage …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013292495
We develop a regime switching vector autoregression where artificial neural networks drive time variation in the coefficients of the conditional mean of the endogenous variables and the variance covariance matrix of the disturbances. The model is equipped with a stability constraint to ensure...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013314694
This paper considers forecast averaging when the same model is used but estimation is carried out over different … estimation windows leads to a lower bias and to a lower root mean square forecast error for all but the smallest of breaks …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276222