We examine forecast accuracy and efficiency of the Social Security Administration’s projections for cost rate, trust …

In this paper, we disentangle tax revenue forecast errors into influences stemming from wrong macroeconomic assumptions … the forecast errors of the energy tax and the sales taxes. For the overall tax sum, more than two-third of the error can … can reduce tax revenue forecast errors …

-switching models, and forecast combination to predict the dynamics in the S&P 500. First, we aggregate the weekly information of 115 …

forecasts are derived from non-directional forecasts and whether point forecast have predictive value when transformed into …

realized sales, we document that only major forecast errors are predictable and display autocorrelation. This result is a … forecast errors are neither predictable nor autocorrelated. To arrive at this result, we develop a novel methodology to … environments where information processing is more costly. This results in major forecast errors that are predictable and …

This paper provides a detailed assessment of the real-time forecast accuracy of a wide range of vector autoregressive …

. Second, we propose a method to forecast aggregate time series using data obtained from the simulation of an ABM. We apply our …

uncertainty of a combined forecast should be interpreted as that of a typical forecaster randomly drawn from the pool. With a … some previously used measures significantly underestimate the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty …