We examine forecast accuracy and efficiency of the Social Security Administration’s projections for cost rate, trust …

In this paper, we disentangle tax revenue forecast errors into influences stemming from wrong macroeconomic assumptions … the forecast errors of the energy tax and the sales taxes. For the overall tax sum, more than two-third of the error can … can reduce tax revenue forecast errors …

-switching models, and forecast combination to predict the dynamics in the S&P 500. First, we aggregate the weekly information of 115 …

We examine partisan bias in inflation expectations. Our dataset includes inflation expectations of the New York Fed … based on how partisans respond to changes in the White House's occupant (partisan bias). The results also corroborate the …

-frequency interest rate changes around FOMC announcements, and consensus survey forecast errors for the ten-year Treasury yield. The …-term Treasury yields starting in late 2020. The connection between skewness, survey forecast errors, excess returns, and departures …

Evidence from hypothetical scenarios strongly suggests the existence of a sunk cost bias, the tendency to ‘throw good … psychological channels underlying such a bias is scarce. We present a laboratory experiment designed to investigate the sunk cost … bias and to test some prominent psychological mechanisms. Inspired by the hypothetical scenarios, we use a two …

European countries for more than a decade, we estimate time-varying individual level bias in ‘survival expectations' (BSE) at …