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Using a long-panel dataset of Japanese firms that contains firm-level sales forecasts, we provide evidence on firm-level uncertainty and imperfect information over their life cycle. We find that firms make non-negligible and positively correlated forecast errors. However, they make more precise...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012826001
The paper analyzes under what circumstances policymakers experiment with policies with uncertain outcomes, when they prefer to imitate policies initiated in other countries, and when they prefer to coordinate policies internationally. Policymakers have private costs of active policies and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013289693
framework. We test the model’s predictions in a laboratory experiment. Both in theory and in the experiment diagnostic … uncertainty decreases the rate of efficient service provision and leads to less trade. In theory, insurance also decreases the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013314966
information. Respondents who learn of a higher personal exposure to unemployment risk during recessions increase their demand for … rational inattention that demand for information depends on its expected benefit. Moreover, the fact that perceived risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013315172
Tax legislation, fiscal authorities, and tax courts create tax uncertainty by frequent tax reforms and various different interpretations of the tax law. Moreover, investors generate model-specific tax uncertainty by using simplified models that anticipate the actual tax base incorrectly. I...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013316889
perception frictions. The model explains adaptive risk attitudes and probability weighting as in prospect theory and … the decision-maker’s understanding of the risk. The strategy does not distort choice in the limit as perception frictions … complexity of the decision problem, then risk attitudes reflect properties of the perception strategy even for vanishing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013306853
choose their portfolio risk, bank size, and capital holdings. Banks voluntarily hold equity when the buffer effect against … the risk of default outweighs the cost advantages of debt financing. In the optimum, banks with lower monitoring costs are … to make higher-risk portfolios more attractive. Accounting for banks’ interior capital choices can thus explain why …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013308111
This paper investigates whether limited liability and moral hazard affect risk-taking through motivated beliefs. On the … subjects form motivated beliefs to self-justify their excessive risk-taking. For the same investment opportunity, subjects …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013310769
) we vary three payoff indices. Indices of risk and temptation capture the unilateral incentives to defect against … reduces cooperation. In neither study, nor in either subject pool of our second study, do we find a significant effect of risk …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013312072
We develop a financial-economic model for carbon pricing with an explicit representation of decision making under risk … specifications. We show that risk associated with high damages in the long term leads to stringent mitigation of carbon dioxide … emissions in the near term. Our results provide insight into how a systematic incorporation of climate-related risk influences …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014255593