The adaptive learning approach has been fruitfully employed to model the formation of aggregate expectations at the … macroeconomic level, as an alternative to rational expectations. This paper uses adaptive learning to understand, instead, the … their heterogeneity. We exploit survey data on output and inflation expectations by individual professional forecasters. We …

, given that agents are still remarkably farsighted. But, under Euler-equation learning, the model can fit the data with only … infinite-horizon learning, and subjective expectations with Euler-equation learning. Under rational expectations, the model … necessitates of large, possibly unrealistically so, degrees of myopia. The same result persists under infinite-horizon learning …

study experimentally to what extent cross-game learning can reduce overbidding in SPAs, taking into account cognitive skills … losses from high bids are more salient than in SPAs. Experience in FPAs causes substantial cross-game learning for … bid shading by cognitively more able participants, resulting in lower profits in FPAs. Thus, cross-game learning has the …

Based on administrative data of unemployed in Belgium, we estimate the labour market effects of three training … programmes at various aggregation levels using Modified Causal Forests, a causal machine learning estimator. While all programmes …

student data from a state and a private university to predict student success as a basis for a targeted intervention. The EDS …

Can machine learning support better governance? In the context of Brazilian municipalities, 2001-2012, we have access … to detailed accounts of local budgets and audit data on the associated fiscal corruption. Using the budget variables as … predictors, we train a tree-based gradient-boosted classifier to predict the presence of corruption in held-out test data. The …

conceptualization of the Machine Learning Index. Finally, we largely expand the data coverage by providing democracy indicators for 186 … of the Machine Learning indicator of Gründler and Krieger (2016, European Journal of Political Economy). Four … improvements are particularly notable: First, we produce a continuous and a dichotomous version of the Machine Learning democracy …