This study estimates the impact of excess precipitation (or the absence of rainfall) on productivity of agricultural … productivity. Overall, we find statistically significant declines in agricultural productivity that is associated with both floods …

makes predicting these shifts hard. Hence, this paper asks whether forecasting them is necessary for optimal rotation … forecasting, we suggest a method utilizing Monte-Carlo simulations to obtain a credible upper bound on these losses. We show that …

In this paper, we disentangle tax revenue forecast errors into influences stemming from wrong macroeconomic assumptions … the forecast errors of the energy tax and the sales taxes. For the overall tax sum, more than two-third of the error can … can reduce tax revenue forecast errors …

-switching models, and forecast combination to predict the dynamics in the S&P 500. First, we aggregate the weekly information of 115 …

We analyze the exchange rate forecasting performance under the assumption of selective attention. Although currency … for the presence of selective attention offer improved fitting and forecasting results. Specifically, we document a …

We examine forecast accuracy and efficiency of the Social Security Administration’s projections for cost rate, trust …

experienced higher levels of agricultural productivity in 1841 and 1852 as well as more investment in irrigation and more … efficient land use. We trace these increases in productivity to an increase in land inequality associated with the Revolutionary …

information approach outperforms alternative forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy. …This paper proposes a new method of forecasting euro area quarterly real GDP that uses area-wide indicators, which are … modeling, we construct the area-wide indicators by utilizing weights that minimize the variance of the out-of-sample forecast …

aggregates are time-varying, much of the literature on forecasting aggregates considers the case of linear aggregates with fixed … theoretical setup and the forecasting results. …