Globalization has led to huge increases in import volumes, but the literature on import forecasting is still in its … infancy. We introduce the first leading indicator especially constructed for total import growth, the so-called Import Climate …. It builds on the idea that the import demand of the domestic country should be reflected in the expected export …

In this paper, we disentangle tax revenue forecast errors into influences stemming from wrong macroeconomic assumptions … the forecast errors of the energy tax and the sales taxes. For the overall tax sum, more than two-third of the error can … can reduce tax revenue forecast errors …

-switching models, and forecast combination to predict the dynamics in the S&P 500. First, we aggregate the weekly information of 115 …

We examine forecast accuracy and efficiency of the Social Security Administration’s projections for cost rate, trust …

forecast combination literature, the effects of model and estimation uncertainty on forecast outcomes are examined by pooling …