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Macroeconomic sources of risk in the term structure
Balfoussia, Chiona; Wickens, Mike - 2004
factor model of asset pricing with observable macroeconomic factors. The joint distribution of excess holding period US bond …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010261080
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The Warsaw Stock Exchange index WIG : modelling and forecasting
Wdowiński, Piotr; Zglinska-Pietrzak, Aneta - 2005
In this paper we have assessed an influence of the NYSE Stock Exchange indexes (DJIA and NASDAQ) and European Stock indexes (DAX and FTSE) on the Warsaw Stock Exchange index WIG within a framework of a GARCH model. By applying a procedure of checking predictive quality of econometric models as...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010277059
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Should Faustmann Forecast Climate Change?
Gars, Johan - 2019
Climate change is predicted to substantially alter forest growth. Optimally, forest owners should take these future changes into account when making rotation decisions today. However, the fundamental uncertainty surrounding climate change makes predicting these shifts hard. Hence, this paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012866409
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Selective Attention in Exchange Rate Forecasting
Kapounek, Svatopluk; Kučerová, Zuzana; Kočenda, Evžen - 2021
We analyze the exchange rate forecasting performance under the assumption of selective attention. Although currency markets react to a variety of different information, we hypothesize that market participants process only a limited amount of information. Our analysis includes more than 100,000...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013245625
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Inefficiency in Social Security Trust Funds Forecasts
Lahiri, Kajal; Zhang, Junyan; Zhao, Yongchen - 2021
We examine forecast accuracy and efficiency of the Social Security Administration’s projections for cost rate, trust …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013313449
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Econometrics: a bird's eye view
Geweke, John F.; Horowitz, Joel L.; Pesaran, Mohammad Hashem - 2006
As a unified discipline, econometrics is still relatively young and has been transforming and expanding very rapidly over the past few decades. Major advances have taken place in the analysis of cross sectional data by means of semi-parametric and non-parametric techniques. Heterogeneity of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010276202
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Tax Revenue Forecast Errors : Wrong Predictions of the Tax Base or the Elasticity?
Göttert, Marcell; Lehmann, Robert - 2021
In this paper, we disentangle tax revenue forecast errors into influences stemming from wrong macroeconomic assumptions … the forecast errors of the energy tax and the sales taxes. For the overall tax sum, more than two-third of the error can … can reduce tax revenue forecast errors …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013222194
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Predictability of Bull and Bear Markets : A New Look at Forecasting Stock Market Regimes (and Returns) in the Us
Haase, Felix; Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2021
-switching models, and forecast combination to predict the dynamics in the S&P 500. First, we aggregate the weekly information of 115 …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250734
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Financial markets and economic growth in Poland : simulations with an econometric model
Wdowiński, Piotr - 2005
In this paper we present simulations of economic performance of the Polish economy based on a quarterly econometric model. The model consists of 22 stochastic equations, which link the financial market with the real economy. The purpose of the research is to present effects of changes to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010277058
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Uncertainty and the Cost of Bank vs. Bond Finance
Grimme, Christian - 2019
How does uncertainty affect the costs of raising finance in the bond market and via bank loans? Empirically, this paper … finds that heightened uncertainty is accompanied by an increase in corporate bond yields and a decrease in bank lending … the value of the lending relationship and lowers the lending rate. Bond investors demand compensation for the increased …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012892132