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Predictability of Bull and Bear Markets : A New Look at Forecasting Stock Market Regimes (and Returns) in the Us
Haase, Felix; Neuenkirch, Matthias - 2021
-switching models, and forecast combination to predict the dynamics in the S&P 500. First, we aggregate the weekly information of 115 … as predictors. Third, we pool the forecasts in clusters to hedge against model risk and to evaluate the usefulness of …, and reducing tail risk. Using the same approach for return forecasts, however, does not lead to a consistent …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013250734
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Selective Attention in Exchange Rate Forecasting
Kapounek, Svatopluk; Kučerová, Zuzana; Kočenda, Evžen - 2021
We analyze the exchange rate forecasting performance under the assumption of selective attention. Although currency markets react to a variety of different information, we hypothesize that market participants process only a limited amount of information. Our analysis includes more than 100,000...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013245625
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Terrorist Attacks and Financial Markets
Bonekamp, Bas; van Veen, Tom - 2017
This paper investigates the magnitude and the duration of the effect of a terrorist attack on stock market indices. We investigate the impact of New York (2001), Madrid (2004), London (2005), Boston (2013), Paris (2015), Brussels (2016), Nice (2016) and Berlin(2016) on the stock indices of the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011615879
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The Effects of the Covid-19 Pandemic on Stock Markets, CDS and Economic Activity: Time-Varying Evidence from the US and Europe
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Catik, Abdurrahman Nazif; … - 2021
This paper examines the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on stock returns, CDS and economic activity in the US and the five European countries (the UK, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain) which have been most affected. The sample period covers the dates from the first confirmed COVID-19 cases in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012658022
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The Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Stock Markets, CDS and Economic Activity : Time-Varying Evidence from the US and Europe
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria; Catik, Abdurrahman Nazif; … - 2021
This paper examines the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on stock returns, CDS and economic activity in the US and the five European countries (the UK, Germany, France, Italy, and Spain) which have been most affected. The sample period covers the dates from the first confirmed COVID-19 cases in...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013211119
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High-frequency analysis of foreign exchange interventions: what do we learn?
Menkhoff, Lukas - 2008
The high-frequency analysis of foreign exchange dynamics is helpful in order to better identify the impact of central bank interventions. Evidence robustly shows that interventions do indeed move the exchange rate level in the desired direction. Interventions increase volatility in the short run...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010264498
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Should Faustmann Forecast Climate Change?
Gars, Johan - 2019
Climate change is predicted to substantially alter forest growth. Optimally, forest owners should take these future changes into account when making rotation decisions today. However, the fundamental uncertainty surrounding climate change makes predicting these shifts hard. Hence, this paper...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012866409
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Tax Revenue Forecast Errors : Wrong Predictions of the Tax Base or the Elasticity?
Göttert, Marcell; Lehmann, Robert - 2021
In this paper, we disentangle tax revenue forecast errors into influences stemming from wrong macroeconomic assumptions … the forecast errors of the energy tax and the sales taxes. For the overall tax sum, more than two-third of the error can … can reduce tax revenue forecast errors …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013222194
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Inefficiency in Social Security Trust Funds Forecasts
Lahiri, Kajal; Zhang, Junyan; Zhao, Yongchen - 2021
We examine forecast accuracy and efficiency of the Social Security Administration’s projections for cost rate, trust …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013313449
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The Frequency of One-Day Abnormal Returns and Price Fluctuations in the Forex
Caporale, Guglielmo Maria - 2020
This paper analyses the explanatory power of the frequency of abnormal returns in the FOREX for the EURUSD, GBRUSD, USDJPY, EURJPY, GBPCHF, AUDUSD and USDCAD exchange rates over the period 1994-2019. Abnormal returns are detected using a dynamic trigger approach; then the following hypotheses...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012837673