parameters we compare the out-of-sample forecasting performance of an inflation model including a shadow rate interaction term …This paper investigates the predictive power of the shadow rate for the inflation rate in countries with a zero lower … inflation rate are evaluated. The models including the shadow rate interaction term are found to outperform the benchmark ones …

stock returns, we show that no single forecasting approach dominates uniformly. However, forecast combination and shrinkage …We develop novel forecasting methods for panel data with heterogeneous parameters and examine them together with … forecasting methods can perform better than forecasts based on individual estimates and demonstrate how gains in predictive …

makes predicting these shifts hard. Hence, this paper asks whether forecasting them is necessary for optimal rotation … forecasting, we suggest a method utilizing Monte-Carlo simulations to obtain a credible upper bound on these losses. We show that …

forecasts are derived from non-directional forecasts and whether point forecast have predictive value when transformed into …

We examine forecast accuracy and efficiency of the Social Security Administration’s projections for cost rate, trust …

We analyze the exchange rate forecasting performance under the assumption of selective attention. Although currency … for the presence of selective attention offer improved fitting and forecasting results. Specifically, we document a …

-switching models, and forecast combination to predict the dynamics in the S&P 500. First, we aggregate the weekly information of 115 …

uncertainty of a combined forecast should be interpreted as that of a typical forecaster randomly drawn from the pool. With a … some previously used measures significantly underestimate the conceptually correct benchmark forecast uncertainty …

In this paper, we disentangle tax revenue forecast errors into influences stemming from wrong macroeconomic assumptions … the forecast errors of the energy tax and the sales taxes. For the overall tax sum, more than two-third of the error can … can reduce tax revenue forecast errors …

quarterly frequency. We forecast gross domestic product (GDP) for two German states (Free State of Saxony and Baden …. Our results show that we can significantly increase forecast accuracy compared to an autoregressive benchmark model, both …