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Forecasting regional industrial production with high-frequency electricity consumption data
Lehmann, Robert; Möhrle, Sascha - 2022
conduct a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting experiment for the monthly growth rate of Bavarian industrial production. We find … conventional indicators in a monthly forecasting experiment. Exploiting the high-frequency nature of the data, we find that the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013362425
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Going to extremes : politics after financial crisis, 1870 - 2014
Funke, Manuel; Schularick, Moritz; Trebesch, Christoph - 2015
Partisan conflict and policy uncertainty are frequently invoked as factors contributing to slow post-crisis recoveries. Recent events in Europe provide ample evidence that the political aftershocks of financial crises can be severe. In this paper we study the political fall-out from systemic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011349087
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The great mortgaging : housing finance, crises, and business cycles
Jordà, Òscar; Schularick, Moritz; Taylor, Alan M. - 2014
This paper unveils a new resource for macroeconomic research: a long-run dataset covering disaggregated bank credit for 17 advanced economies since 1870. The new data show that the share of mortgages on banks’ balance sheets doubled in the course of the 20th century, driven by a sharp rise of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010412763
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On the Solvency of Nations: Cross-Country Evidence on the Dynamics of External Adjustment
Durdu, C. Bora; Mendoza, Enrique G.; Terrones, Marco E. - 2012
We test the hypothesis that net foreign asset positions are consistent with external solvency and examine the dynamics of external adjustment using data for 50 countries over the 1970-2006 period. Our analysis adapts Bohn's (2007) error-correction reaction function approach - which tests for a...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010500208
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Tracking weekly state-level economic conditions
Baumeister, Christiane; Leiva-León, Danilo; Sims, Eric R. - 2021
In this paper, we develop a novel dataset of weekly economic conditions indices for the 50 U.S. states going back to 1987 based on mixed-frequency dynamic factor models with weekly, monthly, and quarterly variables that cover multiple dimensions of state economies. We show that there is...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012584223
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Inefficiency in social security trust funds forecasts
Lahiri, Kajal; Zhang, Junyan; Zhao, Yongchen - 2021
We examine forecast accuracy and efficiency of the Social Security Administration's projections for cost rate, trust fund balance, trust fund ratio made during 1980-2020 with horizons up to 95 years. We find that the reported deterioration in the accuracy of the forecasts during 2010’s has...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012668902
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Supply, demand and monetary policy shocks in a multi-country New Keynesian model
Dées, Stéphane; Pesaran, M. Hashem; Smith, L. Vanessa; … - 2010
This paper estimates and solves a multi-country version of the standard DSGE New Keynesian (NK) model. The country-specific models include a Phillips curve determining inflation, an IS curve determining output, a Taylor Rule determining interest rates, and a real effective exchange rate...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10003974674
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The effect of shocks to labour market flows on unemployment and participation rates
Dixon, Robert J.; Lim, Guay C.; Ours, Jan C. van - 2014
This paper studies collective contests with endogenous cost sharing, general effort costs and intra-group heterogeneity of prize-valuation. Our objective is to clarify the relationship between cost sharing, intra-group heterogeneity within the competing groups and the elasticity of the marginal...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010361496
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Forecastability and statistical characteristics of aggregate oil and gas investments on the Norwegian Continental Shelf
Lorentzen, Sindre; Osmundsen, Petter - 2016
We investigate the potential for statistical forecasting of aggregate oil and gas investment on the Norwegian …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011544319
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Boosting and regional economic forecasting : the case dof Germany
Lehmann, Robert; Wohlrabe, Klaus - 2016
This paper applies component-wise boosting to the topic of regional economic forecasting. Component-wise boosting is a … pre-selection algorithm of indicators for forecasting. By using unique quarterly real gross domestic product data for two … economic forecasting. We additionally take a closer look into the algorithm and ask which indicators get selected. All in all …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011557750