The 9/56 year cycle consists of a grid repeating the intervals 56 years vertically (called sequences) and 9 years horizontally (called subcycles). Since 1760, US and Western European financial panics have clustered with significance in this grid pattern. Seasonality was also observed within the...

Monthly time-series data based on agricultural commodities tend to present strong and particular patterns of seasonality. The presence of zero values in some of the seasons is not explained by the absence of reporting but is the result of actual features of agricultural processes. Seasonal unit...

The housing market exhibits a puzzling yet repetitive seasonal boom and bust cycle where prices and trade volume rise in summers and fall in winters. This paper presents a search model that analytically generates the observed deterministic cycle.

This paper observes the Turkish household’ consumption data to see whether it follows random walk or not. The quarterly data covers the period from 1987:1 to 2003:4. By employing the direct tests for random walk, excess smoothness or excess sensitivity, this study results in both excess...

The seasonal adjustment method proposed by Schlicht (1981) can be viewed as a method that minimizes non-stochastic deviations (perturbations). This interpretation gives rise to a critique of the seasonality criterion used there. A new seasonality criterion is proposed that avoids these...

The paper discusses a new seasonality hypothesis which is one part of a weighted regression approach for the decomposition of a time series into a trend, a seasonal component and an irregular component. It is shown that there exists a regression formulation leading, as in the descriptive...

This paper studies the month of the year effect, where January effect presents positive and the highest returns of the other months of the year. In order to investigate the specific calendar effect in global level, fifty five stock market indices from fifty one countries are examined. Symmetric...

In this paper it is demonstrated by simulation that, contrary to a widely held belief, pure seasonal mean shifts - i.e., seasonal structural breaks which affect only the deterministic seasonal cycle - really do matter for Dickey-Fuller long-run unit root tests.

Evidence for Malawi and other developing countries suggests the existence of labor shortages at the peak of the cropping season, with negative impacts on the ability of households to make the most of their endowments such as land. At the same time, for most of the year, there is substantial...

This paper examines the role and factors of seasonality in tourist revenues in the case of Greece. The empirical analysis of the current research is conducted using quarterly data for the period 1960:I– 2005:IV. Osborn et. al. (1998), Miron (1994) and Hylleberg et al. (1990) tests for seasonal...