Output volatility and the size of output drops have declined across groups of nontransition countries studied in this paper over the past three decades, but have remained considerably higher in developing countries than in industrial countries. The paper employs a Bayesian latent dynamic factor...

The article sums up the Czech Economic Association's seminar ""Public Budgets in the Czech Republic"" held in April 2000 in Prague. Various presenters outlined the basic theoretical underpinnings of fiscal policy analysis and sought to quantify the structural and cyclical part of Czech public...

The paper considers the impact of the business cycle on Czech fiscal balance in the past decade. The authors employed two different calculation methods in their analysis: an OECD and an ESCB method. Two crucial findings emerged from the analysis. First, the estimates of cyclically adjusted...

The paper explores the long-term fiscal implications of population aging in the Czech Republic. The results, although bearing a significant margin of uncertainty due to the very long-term character of the projection exercise, do not impart encouraging fiscal outlooks for the Czech Republic. This...

The paper provides an analysis of the role of fiscal rules. The authors first provide a rationale for the existence of fiscal rules, namely to avoid a governmental bias toward budget deficits. The paper then surveys existing fiscal rules and analyzes their applicability in the context of the...

This paper asks to what extent were the last one hundred policy decisions taken by the Czech National Bank (CNB) considered predictable by the market. The results are threefold. First, CNB policy decisions can be considered as predictable on average. Second, policy predictability followed no...