In Folge der starken Rezession kommt es durch diskretionäre Maßnahmen der Bundesregierung und die Auswirkung der automatischen Stabilisatoren zu einem erheblichen Anstieg des Staatsdefizits. Im Ergebnis wird das Niveau der öffentlichen Verschuldung bei Rückkehr zur wirtschaftlichen...

Die Konsolidierung der Staatsfinanzen nach der gegenwärtigen Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise wird eines der zentralen wirtschaftspolitischen Themen der nächsten Jahre sein: Die Regelungen zur "Schuldenbremse" sehen für den Bundeshaushalt bis 2016 einen annähernd ausgeglichenen Haushalt vor, und...

In this paper, we analyze politicians’ expectations about future compliance with a fiscal rule, and in particular the dependence of the expectations on their role in parliament (opposition vs. incumbent government coalition). In addition, we explore how opposition and incumbent politicians...

This paper provides new evidence for the empirical literature that investigates the presence of political cycles in fiscal policy and, more precisely, public investments in Brazil. The approach differs from most of the studies for applying the state-space modeling. The greatest benefit is to...

This paper tries to explain the declining level of public investment in OECD countries. The theoretical framework hints to the relevance of a number of demand and supply factors - ranging from the yield of public investment to institutions like the EU deficit limits. The econometric results...

The Brazilian experience is of particular interest as a case study into the fiscal scope for public sector investments, especially in infrastructure. Brazil has one of the highest tax burdens in the world and, at the same time, the public sector has been registering a historic low in investment,...

In this paper I use Ghosh et al. (2013) approach to assess Brazil's fiscal sustainability, fiscal fatigue, and public debt limit. Using monthly data for the last 21 years, I estimate Brazil's fiscal reaction function and an eventual fiscal fatigue effect, which is a lack of government's will (or...