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We investigate whether two heuristics, the peak-end rule and herding, lead to cognitive biases in the index of consumer sentiment published by the University of Michigan. Both affect respondents' assessment of changes in their financial position over the past year. Consistent with the peak-end...
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. Behind the debate, it is argued, lies a fundamental different idea of how human decision-making is to be understood and …
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We examine in a large survey (n = 1,928) how contemplative entrepreneurs, managers and employees are in their decision … intuitive as employees. At the same time entrepreneurs have response times and a subjective Need for Cognition that (on average … cognition, and thus take more time to think things over. …
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-generation process, the least-squares estimators have smaller bias (in fact zero bias) but larger variances in the long regression than … in the short regression. But if the long regression is also misspecified, the bias may not be smaller. We provide bias …
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We develop a general framework for measuring biases in expectation formation. The method is based on the insight that biases can be inferred from the response of forecast errors to past news. Empirically, biases are measured by flexibly estimating the impulse response function of forecast...
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Biased longevity expectations will lead to suboptimal decisions regarding saving, retirement, annuitization and health, with consequences for wellbeing in old age. Systematic differences in the accuracy of longevity expectations may partly explain heterogeneity in economic behaviour by education...
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