Many economic decisions involve a substantial amount of uncertainty, and therefore crucially depend on how individuals process probabilistic information. In this paper, we investigate the capability for probability judgment in a representative sample of the German population. Our results show...

We examine several measures of uncertainty to make five points. First, equity market traders and executives at nonfinancial firms have shared similar assessments about one-year-ahead uncertainty since the pandemic struck. Both the one-year VIX and our survey-based measure of firm-level...

Do voters place their trust in tried and tested leaders when uncertainty is high or do they prefer a new slate of leaders who are arguably more competent? To study this question, we make use of hand-collected data on 402,385 candidates who competed in open-list local council elections...

This study measures the extent to which Seoul's COVID-19 shopping coupon program affects individuals' consumption. Unlike other COVID-19-related transfer programs, the Seoul Metropolitan government provides consumption coupons depending on income. We quantify the causal effect of Seoul's program...

COVID-19 has affected daily life in unprecedented ways. Using a longitudinal dataset linking biometric and survey data from several cohorts of young adults before and during the pandemic (N=685), we document large disruptions to physical activity, sleep, time use, and mental health. At the onset...

With 1582 respondents from the Health and Retirement Survey (HRS), this study investigates the heterogeneity in older adults' vulnerability and examines the relationship between vulnerability types, aging attitudes and emotional responses. International Positive and Negative Affect Schedule...

During the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, Shanghai implemented lockdown measures to stop transmission of the virus. Over 26 million residents, including 0.8 million children aged 3-6, were confined at home. This study leveraged a city-wide cohort of preschool children - the Shanghai...

To protect financially distressed families during the COVID-19 pandemic, states implemented emergency measures such as moratoria on evictions and utility shutoffs. These policies prevented utility companies from disconnecting families' energy and water and landlords from obtaining court-ordered...

We analyze the novel transactional card expenditure data for Germany and Austria provided by Fable Data. We describe key features of the data in terms of the coverage of expenditure items, payment channels, and the distribution of expenditures across regions and time. We highlight strengths and...

Western governments are currently contemplating how to adapt their Pay-As-You-Go pension systems so that these remain financially sustainable, even with an aged population. To the extent that policy-makers haven't already adapted their old age social security schemes, an ageing population thus...