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consumption and real GDP. In line with BNW, we find that confidence shocks explain a large share of the variance in real economic …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011605714
This paper investigates the role of domestic and external factors in explaining business cycle and international trade developments in fifteen emerging market economies. Results from sign restricted VARs show that developments in real output, inflation, real exchange rates and international...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012777677
This paper shows that, controlling for standard determinants of net external positions, financially-remote countries exhibit more positive net external positions. This finding is found to be stronger for less advanced countries, hinting at external funding problems for more remote countries....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013127570
The enlargement of the European monetary union to include the accession countries (ACs) will not lead to higher average inflation in the enlarged euro area, but only to inflation redistribution across countries if continuity of the monetary policy framework is preserved. In the short term,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604262
Taking the mean-variance portfolio model as a benchmark, we compute the optimally diversified portfolio for banks located in France, Germany, the U.K., and the U.S. under different assumptions about currency hedging. We compare these optimal portfolios to the actual cross-border assets of banks...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604475
This paper examines the welfare implications of a country joining a currency union as opposed to operating in a flexible exchange rate regime. At the country level, the suboptimal response to domestic and foreign shocks and the inability of setting inflation at the desired level may be offset by...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604491
This paper examines the cross-dynamics of volatility term structures implied by foreign exchange options. The data used in the empirical analysis consist of daily observations of implied volatilities for OTC options on the euro, Japanese yen, British pound, Swiss franc, and Canadian dollar,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604576
This paper assesses the prospects for monetary integration between Emerging East Asian (EEA) economies. Our empirical analysis is based on a simple analytical framework for currency unions of small open economies, with a focus on the conduct of monetary policy in the presence of different types...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604613
We examine the implications of monetary union for macroeconomic stabilisation in catching up participating countries. We allow member states’supply conditions to differ inside the union, especially with regard to sectoral characteristics. Sectoral productivity shocks on balance hamper the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604676
This paper analyses the role of asset prices in comparison to other factors, in particular exchange rates, as a driver of the US trade balance. It employs a Bayesian structural VAR model that requires imposing only a minimum of economically meaningful sign restrictions. We find that equity...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011604836