This paper is concerned with the dynamics of competition in American political campaigns, in particular with how the type of message a candidate sends is affected by the stage of the campaign, the status of the candidate, and the competitiveness of the race. The paper examines the allocation of...

We use data from Texas liquor referenda to evaluate the performance of the pivotal-voter theory of voter turnout. We structurally estimate the parameters of a pivotal-voter model using the referendum data. We then use the estimates to evaluate the out of sample performance of the model. Finally,...