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The impact of sovereign yield curve differentials on value-at-risk forecasts for foreign exchange rates
Fink, Holger Maria; Fuest, Andreas; Port, Henry - In: Risks : open access journal 6 (2018) 3, pp. 1-19
A functional ARMA-GARCH model for predicting the value-at-risk of the EURUSD exchange rate is introduced. The model … August 2005–30 September 2016. As a benchmark, we take an ARMA-GARCH and an ARMAX-GARCHX with the 2y-yield difference as the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011890808
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Foreign exchange risk in a managed float regime : a case study of Pakistani rupee
Mudakkar, Syeda Rabab; Uppal, Jamshed Y.; Zaman, Khalid; … - In: Economic modelling 35 (2013), pp. 409-417
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010259786
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Contagion risk for Australian banks from global systemically important banks : evidence from extreme events
Akhter, Selim; Daly, Kevin James - In: Economic modelling 63 (2017), pp. 191-205
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011813475
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Assessing financial stability in turbulent times : a study of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity-type Value-at-Risk model performance in Thailand's transport...
Danai Likitratcharoen; Lucksuda Suwannamalik - In: Risks : open access journal 12 (2024) 3, pp. 1-19
of VaR approaches. This study critically evaluates the efficacy of GARCH-type VaR models within the transportation sector … GARCH-type VaR models include GARCH (1,1) VaR, ARMA (1,1)-GARCH (1,1) VaR, GARCH (1,1)-M VaR, IGARCH (1,1) VaR, EWMA VaR … surpasses GARCH-type VaR models in failure rate accuracy. Within the GARCH-type category, the EWMA VaR model exhibited superior …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014497424
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Forecasting the US real house price index
Plakandaras, Vasilios; Gupta, Rangan; Gkonkas, Periklēs; … - In: Economic modelling 45 (2015), pp. 259-267
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011334082
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Financial time series forecasting using empirical mode decomposition and support vector regression
Nava, Noemi; Di Matteo, Tiziana; Aste, Tomaso - In: Risks : open access journal 6 (2018) 1, pp. 1-21
We introduce a multistep-ahead forecasting methodology that combines empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and support vector regression (SVR). This methodology is based on the idea that the forecasting task is simplified by using as input for SVR the time series decomposed with EMD. The outcomes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011811500
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A new multiscale decomposition ensemble approach for forecasting exchange rates
Sun, Shaolong; Wang, Shouyang; Wei, Yunjie - In: Economic modelling 81 (2019), pp. 49-58
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012201456
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A hybrid model for forecasting realized volatility based on heterogeneous autoregressive model and support vector regression
Zhuo, Yue; Morimoto, Takayuki - In: Risks : open access journal 12 (2024) 1, pp. 1-16
In this study, we proposed two types of hybrid models based on the heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model and support vector regression (SVR) model to forecast realized volatility (RV). The first model is a residual-type model, where the RV is first predicted using the HAR model, and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014480965
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Testing for Granger causality in distribution tails : an application to oil markets integration
Candelon, Bertrand; Joëts, Marc; Tokpavi, Sessi - In: Economic modelling 31 (2013), pp. 276-285
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009729103
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Markets liquidity risk under extremal dependence : analysis with VaRs methods
Ourir, Awatef; Snoussi, Wafa - In: Economic modelling 29 (2012) 5, pp. 1830-1836
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009667092