In a global game, larger ambiguity is shown to decrease the amount of coordination each player perceives. Consequently, small uncertainty tends to select the Pareto dominated equilibrium of the game without uncertainty. Implications for models of financial crises are drawn.

Subjects who overestimate their performance in experimental tasks unrelated to travel are less willing to insure against failing in the task and also less inclined to buy travel insurance. This suggests intrinsic optimism influences insurance demand and diminishes adverse selection.

A landmark result in the optimal monetary policy design literature is that fundamental-based interest rate rules invariably lead to rational expectations equilibria (REE) that are not stable under adaptive learning. In this paper, we make a novel information assumption that private agents cannot...

In this paper, we consider the optimal selling strategy for an asset securitization originator (the issuer) when the potential buyers hold diverse beliefs. We find that the tranching process is beneficial to the issuer because it increases the total sale price. We also consider the optimal...

We estimate the relative contribution of recursive preferences versus adaptive learning in accounting for the tail thickness of price–dividends/rents ratios. We find that both of these sources of volatility account for volatility in liquid (stocks) but not illiquid (housing) assets.

Previous literature has shown that, in a New Keynesian model, an expectations based policy rule induces E-stability of the fundamental equilibrium, while a fundamentals based one does not. We derive an alternative rule, based only on fundamentals, which can also achieve stability of equilibrium...

We study the rationality of the inflation forecasts of the central banks of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico. We reject rationality under a symmetric (Chile is an exception) but not under an asymmetric loss function. An overprediction implies a larger loss than an underprediction. We also...

Analytical expectational stability results are obtained for both Euler-equation and infinite-horizon adaptive learning in a simple stochastic growth model. The rational expectations equilibrium is stable under both types of learning, though there are important differences in the learning dynamics.

When people agree to disagree, how does the disagreement affect asset prices? Within an equilibrium framework with two agents, two risky assets and a riskless bond, we analyze the joint impact of disagreement about expected payoff, variance and correlation, and compare prices with benchmark...

The paper assesses perceived job insecurity as a determinant of current subjective well-being and demonstrates that standard models may yield significantly downward biased estimates.