New estimates of an aggregate long-term production function for the post-war U.S. economy are reported. The results indicate that this long-term aggregate production function exhibits a slight but statistically significant increasing returns to scale. Since virtually all econometric growth...

A novel procedure is applied to test for switches between hysteresis and the natural rate theory over more than a century of UK and USA unemployment data. For both the countries we see a period conforming to hysteresis starting in the early 1920s for the UK and 1930 for USA.

I develop a model where workers decide how hard to look for a job via formal and informal search channels. The intensity of formal search determines an individual’s arrival rate of offers. The strength of investment in informal search translates into a job contact network in which job offers...

Hours volatility has changed non-monotonically across skill groups since the mid-1980s. The welfare cost of business cycles of mid-skilled workers became similar to that of high-skilled workers, while the relative welfare cost of low- to high-skilled workers remains very high.

This study investigates Okun’s law in OECD countries by examining estimates for male and female age cohorts for the period 1998–2012. We find that the estimated Okun coefficients are not always statistically significant for each subgroup of the population. Our results also highlight a...

Standard macroeconomic models possess the undesirable feature that people stop working in the long run. Assuming standard parameters, the neoclassical model predicts that 2% of annual productivity growth leads to a 99% decline in the labor supply after 624 years. Yet, this contradicts the fact...

Using a panel of 17 countries for 1978–2009, we find that tax-driven consolidations increase unemployment by 0.25 percentage points. Labour market flexibility mitigates this: a one-point rise in the flexibility index reduces youth (long-term) unemployment by 0.6–0.7 (1.8–2.2) percentage...

We quantify the effects of hiring subsidies using the model of Mortensen and Pissarides (2003). The job creation effect can be large in a weak labor market. However, in the long-run, subsidies raise the wage and equilibrium unemployment.

Disclosure of monetary policy targets reduces unemployment uncertainty at the expense of higher inflation uncertainty, thereby posing a dilemma for monetary policymakers.

Optimal delegation restores the beneficial effects of non-accommodating monetary policy when the central bank is allowed to be not fully transparent about its response to wages.