We study the rationality of the inflation forecasts of the central banks of Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Mexico. We reject rationality under a symmetric (Chile is an exception) but not under an asymmetric loss function. An overprediction implies a larger loss than an underprediction. We also...

Based on the approach advanced by Elliott et al. [Elliott, G., Komunjer, I., Timmermann, A., 2005. Estimation and testing of forecast rationality under flexible loss. Review of Economic Studies 72, 1107–1125], we studied whether the inflation and output growth projections published by the...

The Livingston survey data are used to investigate whether economists’ forecasts are consistent with the Taylor principle. Consistency with the Taylor principle is strong for academics and Federal Reserve economists, and less strong for private-sector economists.

We investigate the determinants of forecast heterogeneity in the JPY/USD market using panel data from Consensus Economics. We find that past exchange-rate volatility increases forecast dispersion, while foreign exchange intervention of the Japanese Ministry of Finance dampens expectation...

We analyze how individual forecasters build their foreign exchange rate expectations. The Wall Street Journal poll allows us to incorporate explanatory variables such as expected inflation rates and expected GDP growth rates that are both forward looking and person specific.

We use the Livingston survey data to study whether forecasters of the S&P 500 stock price index herd. Our results imply that forecasters do not herd. Rather, we find that forecasters anti-herd. Anti-herding is less prevalent among academics and Federal Reserve economists. Forecaster anti-herding...