Empirical studies have found that increasing the probability of punishment has a greater effect on crime than the severity of punishment. This note explains this as the result of criminals having imperfect information on their criminal ability. As they commit crimes, they update their estimates...

We consider how parties’ formal contracts are underpinned by their ongoing relationship and how welfare changes as the legal system improves. Regardless of impatience, the parties write formal contracts that they would not honor–despite stipulated penalties–if they interacted only once....

Working with a unique neighborhood homicide dataset from 2008 to 2010, this paper makes two contributions. First, we capture the importance of the spatial dependence on homicide rates within large urban center neighborhoods. Second, we measure the influence of spatial dependence more precisely...

We analyse bonus payments for officials, who transfer payments truthfully to the government rather than collecting bribes. We show that optimised bonus payments are always beneficial to the government, making them a more effective anti-corruption measure than simple wage increases.

Even risk-neutral individuals can insure themselves against crimes by combining direct expenditure on security with costly diversification. In such cases — and even when one of these options is infeasible — greater policing often actually encourages private precautions.

We investigate the effects of predictable changes in TFP at the sectoral level. Our findings can reconcile the seemingly contradictory findings in the literature. Shocks to predictable changes in investment-sector TFP are also found important for US business cycle fluctuations.

This note studies exchange rate pass-through to the prices of domestically produced goods, exploring the firm-level pricing survey conducted by the Bank of Korea. The data reveal the imported inputs channel of, as well as nonlinear and asymmetric, exchange rate-pass-through.

We examine retailer heterogeneity in price adjustment in UK supermarkets. Considerable variation in the price change frequency of identically bar-coded products among retail chains is found. Decomposition analysis suggests that price adjustment is evenly split between sales and reference prices...

Using grocery store data we study the relationship between dispersion and the business cycle. Our findings reveal that overall there is no robust and significant relationship; however, these mask important heterogeneity in the cyclicality of dispersion at the category level.

We find that lottery tax windfalls finance higher state-government expenditures on supplemental security income that increase consumption, but only during bust periods. Wealth transfers from lottery winners to low income households enable fiscal policy to stabilize consumption during bust periods.