We investigate whether the use of component forecasts improves the accuracy of a portfolio forecast which uses only aggregate data. The results show that the use of component data improves the accuracy of aggregate forecasts. Furthermore, the long–short trading strategy based on the component...

This paper proposes a new dividend-based S&P 500 Index return predictor, the implied dividend yield term structure (IDYTS). We show that the IDYTS is a “cleaner” predictor than its conventional counterpart, the dividend price ratio (DP), in that the expected return is a linear combination...

This paper shows that when Value-at-Risk constrained institutional investors care about their relative standings among the peer group, more risk averse investors would take more risk, which improves the risk sharing and lowers the volatility.

This study adopts the CoVaR methodology to analyse the tail risk relationships among European sovereigns, which provide arguably important information for policymakers to identify countries that should come under close scrutiny during the current debt crisis.

Empirical evidence suggests that asset returns correlate more strongly in bear markets than conventional correlation estimates imply. We propose a method for determining complete tail-correlation matrices based on Value-at-Risk (VaR) estimates. We demonstrate how to obtain more efficient...

I test whether more investor attention leads to a better exploitation of arbitrage opportunities and, in turn, to less mispricing of American Depositary Receipts (ADRs). Using data on 536 stocks I find that more investor attention significantly reduces ADR mispricing.

Since the enactment of Pension Protection Act of 2006, lifecycle funds that reduce exposure to stocks with age have rapidly replaced money market funds as the most commonly nominated default investment options for participant-directed retirement plans. We examine their appropriateness in meeting...

This study investigates the predictability of stock market returns using a novel corporate investment measure that captures the lumpiness of firm-level investment. We find that the proportion of firms with investment spikes ("spike") is a strong predictor of excess stock returns. Specifically,...

The asymptotic distributions of the maximum likelihood estimator of the persistence parameter are developed in a linear diffusion model under three sampling schemes, long-span, in-fill and double. Simulations suggest that the in-fill asymptotic distribution gives a more accurate approximation to...