Dillenberger (2010) introduced the negative certainty independence (NCI) axiom, which captures the certainty effect phenomenon. He left open the question of whether there are continuous and monotone preference relations over simple lotteries that satisfy NCI but do not belong to the...

With moral hazard and anonymous asset trade, first-order conditions need not characterize effort and portfolio choices. The standard procedure for establishing validity of the first-order approach in economies with one hidden asset is not fruitful when multiple assets are hidden.

In a global game, larger ambiguity is shown to decrease the amount of coordination each player perceives. Consequently, small uncertainty tends to select the Pareto dominated equilibrium of the game without uncertainty. Implications for models of financial crises are drawn.

Subjects who overestimate their performance in experimental tasks unrelated to travel are less willing to insure against failing in the task and also less inclined to buy travel insurance. This suggests intrinsic optimism influences insurance demand and diminishes adverse selection.

We estimate the relative contribution of recursive preferences versus adaptive learning in accounting for the tail thickness of price–dividends/rents ratios. We find that both of these sources of volatility account for volatility in liquid (stocks) but not illiquid (housing) assets.

The assumption that individual preferences are rational and consistent with standard economic theory is often appropriate, but may be optimistic if consumers are uncertain about either their preferences or how the market operates. Both sources of uncertainty may present themselves in lab...

In an experiment, a group of strangers was randomly divided in pairs to play a prisoners’ dilemma; this process was indefinitely repeated. Cooperation did not increase when subjects could send public messages amounting to binding promises of future play.

We study credible information transmission by a benevolent short-lived central bank. When externalities create a wedge between private and social welfare, the central bank has an incentive to misreport its information. Information transmission through monetary policy creates a distortion, thus,...

We provide an infinite-horizon model of nonmonotone intertemporal preferences that capture a strong dislike of volatility involved in a utility sequence. As an intermediate result, we also derive a nonmonotone version of multiple-priors utility.

The purpose in this letter is to demonstrate, employing two parametric forms of the Markowitz model of utility, that heterogeneity of preferences of Markowitz agents can contribute towards an explanation of why lotteries typically have multiple rather than single prizes.