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We investigate the impact of short-term weather and long-term climate on self-reported life satisfaction using panel data. We find robust evidence that day-to-day weather variation impacts life satisfaction by a similar magnitude to acquiring a mild disability. Utilizing two sources of variation...

Personalized Digital Assistants (PDAs) and other forms of hardware needed to collect survey data electronically have become more affordable and powerful in recent years, leading to their use in a number of surveys in developing countries.  Simple use of these devices can offer the prospect of...

There are extensive literatures within economics and economic psychology on the allocation of household income within the household.  These two literatures are largely disjoint but both use a concept of 'income pooling'.  In economics this refers to the independence of household decisions from...

Sharing a common fate with some people but not others may affect how economic agents behave within firms and organizations. Recognizing that many bilateral transactions occur both within and between groups sharing some degree of common fate, we present an experimental test of the effect of...

We develop a new automatically-computable test for super exogeneity, using a variant of general-to-specific modeling.  Based on the recent developments of impulse saturation applied to marginal models under the null that no impulses matter, we select the significant impulses for testing in the...

The objective of this study is to compare alternative computerized model-selection strategies in the context of the vector autoregressive (VAR) modeling framework. The focus is on a comparison of subset modeling strategies with the general-to-specific reduction approach automated by PcGets....

Unpredictability arises from intrinsic stochastic variation, unexpected instances of outliers, and unanticipated extrinsic shifts of distributions.  We analyze their properties, relationships, and different effects on the three arenas in the title, which suggests considering three associated...

We develop forecast-error taxonomies when there are unmodeled variables, forecast 'off-line'.  We establish three surprising results.  Even when an open system is correctly specified in-sample with zero intercepts, despite known future values of strongly exogenous variables, changes in...

Although a general unrestricted model may under-specify the data generation process, especially when breaks occur, model selection can still improve over estimating a prior specification.  Impulse-indicator saturation (IIS) can 'correct' non-constant intercepts induced by location shifts in...