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The impact of sovereign yield curve differentials on value-at-risk forecasts for foreign exchange rates
Fink, Holger Maria; Fuest, Andreas; Port, Henry - In: Risks : open access journal 6 (2018) 3, pp. 1-19
A functional ARMA-GARCH model for predicting the value-at-risk of the EURUSD exchange rate is introduced. The model … August 2005–30 September 2016. As a benchmark, we take an ARMA-GARCH and an ARMAX-GARCHX with the 2y-yield difference as the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011890808
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Regime changes in Bitcoin GARCH volatility dynamics
Ardia, David; Bluteau, Keven; Rüede, Maxime - In: Finance research letters 29 (2019), pp. 266-271
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012419095
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More to cryptos than bitcoin : a GARCH modelling of heterogeneous cryptocurrencies
Fung, Kennard; Jeong, Jiin; Pereira, Javier - In: Finance research letters 47 (2022) 1, pp. 1-12
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013457293
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Long vs. short term asymmetry in volatility and the term structure of risk
Lönnbark, Carl - In: Finance research letters 23 (2017), pp. 202-209
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011808396
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Evaluation of volatility models for forecasting Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall in the Portuguese stock market
Sobreira, Nuno; Louro, Rui - In: Finance research letters 32 (2020), pp. 1-7
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012430745
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Bitcoin returns and risk : a general GARCH and GAS analysis
Troster, Victor; Tiwari, Aviral Kumar; Shahbaz, Muhammad; … - In: Finance research letters 30 (2019), pp. 187-193
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012420417
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Assessing financial stability in turbulent times : a study of generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity-type Value-at-Risk model performance in Thailand's transport...
Danai Likitratcharoen; Lucksuda Suwannamalik - In: Risks : open access journal 12 (2024) 3, pp. 1-19
of VaR approaches. This study critically evaluates the efficacy of GARCH-type VaR models within the transportation sector … GARCH-type VaR models include GARCH (1,1) VaR, ARMA (1,1)-GARCH (1,1) VaR, GARCH (1,1)-M VaR, IGARCH (1,1) VaR, EWMA VaR … surpasses GARCH-type VaR models in failure rate accuracy. Within the GARCH-type category, the EWMA VaR model exhibited superior …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014497424
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Financial time series forecasting using empirical mode decomposition and support vector regression
Nava, Noemi; Di Matteo, Tiziana; Aste, Tomaso - In: Risks : open access journal 6 (2018) 1, pp. 1-21
We introduce a multistep-ahead forecasting methodology that combines empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and support vector regression (SVR). This methodology is based on the idea that the forecasting task is simplified by using as input for SVR the time series decomposed with EMD. The outcomes...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011811500
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A hybrid model for forecasting realized volatility based on heterogeneous autoregressive model and support vector regression
Zhuo, Yue; Morimoto, Takayuki - In: Risks : open access journal 12 (2024) 1, pp. 1-16
In this study, we proposed two types of hybrid models based on the heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model and support vector regression (SVR) model to forecast realized volatility (RV). The first model is a residual-type model, where the RV is first predicted using the HAR model, and the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014480965
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A genetic algorithm for investment–consumption optimization with value-at-risk constraint and information-processing cost
Jin, Zhuo; Yang, Zhixin; Yuan, Quan - In: Risks : open access journal 7 (2019) 1/32, pp. 1-15
This paper studies the optimal investment and consumption strategies in a two-asset model. A dynamic Value-at-Risk constraint is imposed to manage the wealth process. By using Value at Risk as the risk measure during the investment horizon, the decision maker can dynamically monitor the exposed...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012015814