Over the past decade, China's growth model has become more reliant on investment and its footprint in global imports has widened substantially. Several economies within China's supply chain are increasingly exposed to its investment-led growth and face growing risks from a deceleration in...

Real estate investment accounts for a quarter of total fixed asset investment (FAI) in China. The real estate sector's extensive industrial and financial linkages make it a special type of economic activity, especially where the credit creation process relies primarily on collateral, like in...

This paper quantifies financial spillovers from global risk factors to banks' funding costs in Chile. It decomposes Chilean banks' bond and interbank spreads into domestic and external factors. The results suggest moderate spillovers. On average, global spillovers pushed up bank bond and...

Over the past two decades, most emerging market economies witnessed two key developments. A marked process of financial integration with the rest of the world, arguably turning these economies more vulnerable to global financial shocks; and an improvement of macroeconomic fundamentals, helping...

Regional integration of Pacific Island countries (PICs) with Australia, New Zealand, and emerging Asia has increased over the last two decades. PICs have become more exposed to the region's business cycles, and spillovers from regional economies are more important for PICs than from advanced...

This paper develops a structural macroeconometric model of the world economy, disaggregated into thirty five national economies. This panel unobserved components model features a monetary transmission mechanism, a fiscal transmission mechanism, and extensive macrofinancial linkages, both within...

This paper estimates the impact of China's exchange rate changes on exports of competitor countries in third markets, which we call the "spillover effect". We use recent theory to develop an identification strategy in which competition between China and its developing country competitors in...

Hong Kong SAR was hit hard by the global financial crisis, which started out in the U.S. and spilled over to the rest of the world. Three years later, vulnerabilities in the euro area's financial system and concerns over a hard landing in Mainland China have started to weigh on Hong Kong's...

This paper assesses the vulnerability of emerging markets and their banks to aggregate shocks. We find significant links between banks' asset quality, credit and macroeconomic aggregates. Lower economic growth, an exchange rate depreciation, weaker terms of trade and a fall in debt-creating...

This paper uses a novel variant of identification through hetroscedacity to estimate spillovers across U.S., Euro area, Japanese, and UK government bond and equity markets in a vector autoregression. The results suggest that U.S. financial shocks reverberate around the world much more strongly...