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Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts.

Timmermann, Allan - 2006

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY -- II. DESCRIPTION OF WEO DATASET -- III. PROPERTIES OF OPTIMAL FORECASTS -- IV. EMPIRICAL RESULTS -- V. ANALYSIS OF STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE -- VI. CAN THE WEO FORECAST ERRORS BE PREDICTED? -- VII. DIRECTIONAL ACCURACY -- VIII. REVISIONS FROM...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012691044

Common Factors in Latin America's Business Cycles.

Aiolfi, Marco - 2006

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012691015

Financial Sector Debt Bias

Luca, Oana - 2016

Most tax systems create a tax bias toward debt finance. Such debt bias increases leverage and may negatively affect … financial stability. This paper models and estimates debt bias in the financial sector, and present novel estimates for … investment banks and non-bank financial intermediaries such as finance and insurance companies. We find debt bias to be pervasive …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014408098

The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity in the Euro Area

Lombardi, Marco - 2009

The U.S. business cycle typically leads the European cycle by a few quarters and this can be used to forecast euro area GDP. We investigate whether financial variables carry additional information. We use vector autoregressions (VARs) which include the U.S. and the euro area GDPs as a minimal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677494

Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy

Vitek, Francis - 2009

This paper develops a panel unobserved components model of the monetary transmission mechanism in the world economy, disaggregated into its fifteen largest national economies. This structural macroeconometric model features extensive linkages between the real and financial sectors, both within...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677496

Incorporating Market Information into the Construction of the Fan Chart

Kannan, Prakash - 2009

This paper develops a simple procedure for incorporating market-based information into the construction of fan charts. Using the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s global growth forecast as a working example, the paper goes through the theoretical and practical considerations of this new...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677838

Information rigidity and the expectations formation process : a simple framework and new facts

Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy - 2012

We propose a new approach to test the full-information rational expectations hypothesis which can identify whether rejections of the null arise from information rigidities. This approach quantifies the economic significance of departures from the null and the underlying degree of information...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009679674

Nowcasting and Near-Term Forecasting Cambodia’s Economy

Heng, Dyna - 2024

Assessing the current state of the economy and forecast the economic outlook in the next few quarters are important inputs for policymakers. This paper presents a suite of models with an integrated approach to forecast Cambodia’s economy in the current and next few quarters. First, we estimate...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015080247

Smooth Forecast Reconciliation

Ando, Sakai - 2024

How to make forecasts that (1) satisfy constraints, like accounting identities, and (2) are smooth over time? Solving this common forecasting problem manually is resource-intensive, but the existing literature provides little guidance on how to achieve both objectives. This paper proposes a new...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015058568

FINEX - A New Workhorse Model for Macroeconomic Forecasting and Policy Analysis

Berg, Andrew - 2023

This paper presents a semi-structural macroeconomic model aimed at facilitating policy analysis and forecasting, primarily in countries with imperfect capital mobility and hybrid monetary policy regimes. Compared to earlier gap-trend projection models, the Forecasting Model of Internal and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015058939

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