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An Evaluation of World Economic Outlook Forecasts : Any Evidence of Asymmetry?

Aktuğ, Emrehan - 2025

Using a large cross-country dataset covering over 150 countries and more than 10 macroeconomic variables, this study examines the consistency of IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecasts with the full information rational expectations (FIRE) hypothesis. Similar to Consensus Economics forecasts,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015328073

Evaluation of the World Economic Outlook Forecasts.

Timmermann, Allan - 2006

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY -- II. DESCRIPTION OF WEO DATASET -- III. PROPERTIES OF OPTIMAL FORECASTS -- IV. EMPIRICAL RESULTS -- V. ANALYSIS OF STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE -- VI. CAN THE WEO FORECAST ERRORS BE PREDICTED? -- VII. DIRECTIONAL ACCURACY -- VIII. REVISIONS FROM...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012691044

Common Factors in Latin America's Business Cycles.

Aiolfi, Marco - 2006

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012691015

Financial Sector Debt Bias

Luca, Oana - 2016

Most tax systems create a tax bias toward debt finance. Such debt bias increases leverage and may negatively affect … financial stability. This paper models and estimates debt bias in the financial sector, and present novel estimates for … investment banks and non-bank financial intermediaries such as finance and insurance companies. We find debt bias to be pervasive …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014408098

Information rigidity and the expectations formation process : a simple framework and new facts

Coibion, Olivier; Gorodnichenko, Yuriy - 2012

We propose a new approach to test the full-information rational expectations hypothesis which can identify whether rejections of the null arise from information rigidities. This approach quantifies the economic significance of departures from the null and the underlying degree of information...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009679674

The Role of Financial Variables in Predicting Economic Activity in the Euro Area

Lombardi, Marco - 2009

The U.S. business cycle typically leads the European cycle by a few quarters and this can be used to forecast euro area GDP. We investigate whether financial variables carry additional information. We use vector autoregressions (VARs) which include the U.S. and the euro area GDPs as a minimal...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677494

Monetary Policy Analysis and Forecasting in the World Economy

Vitek, Francis - 2009

This paper develops a panel unobserved components model of the monetary transmission mechanism in the world economy, disaggregated into its fifteen largest national economies. This structural macroeconometric model features extensive linkages between the real and financial sectors, both within...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677496

Incorporating Market Information into the Construction of the Fan Chart

Kannan, Prakash - 2009

This paper develops a simple procedure for incorporating market-based information into the construction of fan charts. Using the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s global growth forecast as a working example, the paper goes through the theoretical and practical considerations of this new...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012677838

G3MOD: A Multi-Country Global Forecasting Model

Miller, Iaroslav - 2024

This paper develops G3MOD, a semi-structural gap-trend model designed for frequent external sector forecasts crucial in macroeconomic forecasting. Focused on the G3 economies (US, Euro Area, and China) and the rest of the world, G3MOD leverages insights from central banks' policy models, to...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015328208

Identifying News Shocks from Forecasts

Adams, Jonathan - 2023

We propose a method to identify the anticipated components of macroeconomic shocks in a structural VAR. We include empirical forecasts about each time series in the VAR. This introduces enough linear restrictions to identify each structural shock and to further decompose each one into "news" and...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10015059043