We reassess exchange rate prediction using a wider set of models that have been proposed in the last decade. The performance of these models is compared against two reference specifications-purchasing power parity and the sticky-price monetary model. The models are estimated in first-difference...

This paper investigates the linkages between oil and growth in Congo, where there appears to be no evidence of direct spillover effects. The empirical results suggest however that political instability has a negative effect on non-oil growth, and that the presence of oil could have fueled...

This paper examines financial market comovements across European transition economies and compares their experience to that of their regions. Correlations in monthly indices of exchange market pressures can partly be explained by direct trade linkages, but not by measures of other fundamentals....

This paper analyzes empirically the recent Asian financial crisis using high frequency data of exchange rates and stock indices of the Philippines and Thailand. Utilizing standard time-series techniques, this study confirms that there is evidence that developments in some sectoral...

The literature on the benefits and costs of financial globalization for developing countries has exploded in recent years, but along many disparate channels and with a variety of apparently conflicting results. For instance, there is still little robust evidence of the growth benefits of broad...

The paper presents an N-country model with stock markets, in which a closed-form solution for the real exchange rate is derived. Risky asset prices and allocation of risky assets among countries are determined endogenously. Such a framework allows an analysis of how fundamental parameters, such...

Statistical measures of the volatility of exchange rates, interest rates, and stock prices are estimated for a number of countries. Periods of high volatility are identified and compared with periods of financial difficulty. The results indicate that GARCH models of volatility could be...

Using company-level data, this paper examines the relative stock-market performance of firms with different foreign-exchange exposures around the time of the 1994/95 Mexican crisis. Contrary to what one might have expected given the alleged peso overvaluation, exporting firms outperformed the...

This paper examines the factors affecting the weekly peso/dollar exchange rate movements between 1999 and 2013 using an error correction model. The model fits the historical data well. While copper price is the most important determinant of the peso exchange rate over the long run, other factors...