Showing 1 - 10 of 130
We estimate tax multipliers in a "Blanchard-Yaari" consumption model where Ricardian equivalence is broken because the private sector discounts the future at a faster rate than the real rate of interest. The model fits U.S. data since 1955 extremely well-entailing a discount wedge of around 20...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005825870
In the growth literature, evidence on income convergence is mixed. In the development literature, health and education indicators are also often used. This study examines whether health and education levels are converging across countries and calculates their convergence speed, using data from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005248134
This paper compares three types of early warning indicators of financial instability – those based on financial market prices, those based on normalized measures of total credit and those based on liabilities of financial intermediaries. Prices perform well as concurrent indicators of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011142177
Do changes in monetary policy affect inflation and output in the East African Community (EAC)? We find that (i) Monetary Transmission Mechanism (MTM) tends to be generally weak when using standard statistical inferences, but somewhat strong when using non-standard inference methods; (ii) when...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242179
This paper proposes a quantitative assessment of the welfare effects arising from the Common Monetary Area (CMA) and an array of broader grouping among Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries. Model simulations suggest that (i) participating in the CMA benefits all members; (ii)...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011242297
This paper presents a new model for studying international capital flows and debt dynamics that emphasizes the role played by expectations concerning future trade flows and returns. I use the model to estimate the drivers of the U.S. external position and capital flows between 1973 and 2008. The...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790339
Despite robust deposit growth, credit growth has been sluggish in the Philippines. We attribute this to legacy weaknesses in bank balance sheets, consumption-led economic growth, and relatively high net interest margins. Bank-level analysis suggests that interest margins in the Philippines rise...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790364
This paper surveys the evidence on the effectiveness of monetary transmission in low-income countries. It is hard to come away from this review with much confidence in the strength of monetary transmission in such countries. We distinguish between the "facts on the ground" and "methodological...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010790377
Using the theory of optimal local currency pricing, this paper constructs a structural equation to estimate the rate at which foreign producer prices pass through the local currency prices of imported goods in the U.S. This can be viewed as measuring exchange rate pass-through, in line with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005768785
This study assesses the experience of the Common Monetary Area (CMA) based on available empirical evidence over the last two decades. It pays particular attention to member countries' adjustment to economic shocks in recent years and the inter-country linkages, including the spillover effects of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005768930