This paper develops a simple procedure for incorporating market-based information into the construction of fan charts. Using the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s global growth forecast as a working example, the paper goes through the theoretical and practical considerations of this new...

This paper develops a panel unobserved components model of the monetary transmission mechanism in the world economy, disaggregated into its fifteen largest national economies. This structural macroeconometric model features extensive linkages between the real and financial sectors, both within...

Intro -- Contents -- I. INTRODUCTION AND SUMMARY -- II. DESCRIPTION OF WEO DATASET -- III. PROPERTIES OF OPTIMAL FORECASTS -- IV. EMPIRICAL RESULTS -- V. ANALYSIS OF STATISTICAL SIGNIFICANCE -- VI. CAN THE WEO FORECAST ERRORS BE PREDICTED? -- VII. DIRECTIONAL ACCURACY -- VIII. REVISIONS FROM...

The objective of this paper is to discuss the key issues relating to the development of local corporate bond markets. We examine the requirements for local corporate bond market development, and compare and contrast experiences across both mature and emerging markets. We suggest that core...

With India's GDP expanding at a rate above 8 percent in recent years, the debate about whether India is overheating revolves mainly about whether growth is above potential-that is, whether the economy is exceeding its "speed limit." This paper attempts to shed light on this debate by providing...

This paper proposes an integrated and risk-based approach to the sequencing and coordination of reforms to develop domestic financial markets. The paper argues that there is a hierarchy of financial markets that reflects the complexity of risks in each market and the interlinkages among markets....

This paper assesses the status of financial development in Emerging Europe, analyzes the factors that have shaped it, and discusses policy priorities. Financial development has progressed to varying degrees across the region. Macroeconomic stability and institutional quality have been important...

We study the welfare properties of a New Keynesian monetary economy with an essential role for risky bank lending. Banks lend funds deposited by households to a financial accelerator sector, and face penalties for maintaining insufficient net worth. The loan contract specifies an unconditional...

We propose a new approach to test the full-information rational expectations hypothesis which can identify whether rejections of the null arise from information rigidities. This approach quantifies the economic significance of departures from the null and the underlying degree of information...

It is generally acknowledged that the government's output is difficult to define and its value is hard to measure. The practical solution, adopted by national accounts systems, is to equate output to input costs. However, several studies estimate significant inefficiencies in government...