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Are Currency Crises Predictable? : A Test

Pattillo, Catherine A. - 1998

This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been to predict the Asian crisis? The results are mixed but somewhat encouraging. One...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400560

Are Currency Crises Predictable?

Valdés, Rodrigo O. - 1997

This paper studies whether exchange rate expectations and overvaluations are predictors of currency crises. The results suggest that overvaluation has predictive power in explaining crises. However, although expected depreciation obtained from survey data partially takes different measures of...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403309

Corruption, Competition, and Contracts : A Model of Vote Buying

Vardy, Felix J. J. - 2006

In the presence of competing interest groups, this paper examines how the form of votebuying contracts affects policy outcomes. We study contracts contingent upon individual votes, policy outcomes, and/or vote shares. Voters either care about their individual votes, or about the policy outcome....

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014404237

Price Controls and Electoral Cycles

Asilis, Carlos M. - 1993

This paper studies the interactions between electoral considerations and the imposition of price controls by opportunistic policymakers. The analysis shows that a policy cycle emerges in which price controls are imposed in periods leading to the election, and removed immediately afterwards. The...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014398107

External liabilities and crises

Catão, Luis; Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria - 2013

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009756807

The External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology

Phillips, Steven T.; Catão, Luis; Ricci, Luca Antonio; … - 2013

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010389823

Energy transition metals

Boer, Lukas; Pescatori, Andrea; Stuermer, Martin - 2021

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012796674

Improving the short-term forecast of world trade during the Covid-19 pandemic using SWIFT data on letters of credit

Carton, Benjamin; Hu, Nan; Mongardini, Joannes; Moriya, Kei - 2020

An essential element of the work of the Fund is to monitor and forecast international trade. This paper uses SWIFT … (PMI), to improve the short-term forecast of international trade. A horse race between linear regressions and machine …-learning algorithms for the world and 40 large economies shows that forecasts based on linear regressions often outperform those based on …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012392595

Granger predictability of oil prices after the Great Recession

Benk, Szilárd; Gillman, Max - 2019

Real oil prices surged from 2009 through 2014, comparable to the 1970's oil shock period. Standard explanations based on monopoly markup fall short since inflation remained low after 2009. This paper contributes strong evidence of Granger (1969) predictability of nominal factors to oil prices,...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154675

Measuring global and country-specific uncertainty

Ozturk, Ezgi O.; Sheng, Xuguang - 2017

Motivated by the literature on the capital asset pricing model, we decompose the uncertainty of a typical forecaster into common and idiosyncratic uncertainty. Using individual survey data from the Consensus Forecasts over the period of 1989-2014, we develop monthly measures of macroeconomic...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011748782

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