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E-commerce during COVID : stylized facts from 47 economies
Alcedo, Joel; Cavallo, Alberto; Dwyer, Bricklin; … - 2022
We study e-commerce across 47 economies and 26 industries during the COVID-19 pandemic using aggregated and anonymized transaction-level data from Mastercard, scaled to represent total consumer spending. The share of online transactions in total consumption increased more in economies with...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10013170539
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Technological and economic decoupling in the cyber era
Garcia-Macia, Daniel; Goyal, Rishi - 2020
The COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated the shift toward digital services. Meanwhile, the race for technological and economic leadership has heated up, with risks of decoupling that could set back trade and growth and hinder the recovery from the worst global recession since the Great Depression....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012392638
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External liabilities and crises
Catão, Luis; Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria - 2013
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009756807
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The External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology
Phillips, Steven T.; Catão, Luis; Ricci, Luca Antonio; … - 2013
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010389823
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Energy transition metals
Boer, Lukas; Pescatori, Andrea; Stuermer, Martin - 2021
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012796674
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Improving the short-term forecast of world trade during the Covid-19 pandemic using SWIFT data on letters of credit
Carton, Benjamin; Hu, Nan; Mongardini, Joannes; Moriya, Kei - 2020
An essential element of the work of the Fund is to monitor and forecast international trade. This paper uses SWIFT … (PMI), to improve the short-term forecast of international trade. A horse race between linear regressions and machine …-learning algorithms for the world and 40 large economies shows that forecasts based on linear regressions often outperform those based on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012392595
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Granger predictability of oil prices after the Great Recession
Benk, Szilárd; Gillman, Max - 2019
Real oil prices surged from 2009 through 2014, comparable to the 1970's oil shock period. Standard explanations based on monopoly markup fall short since inflation remained low after 2009. This paper contributes strong evidence of Granger (1969) predictability of nominal factors to oil prices,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154675
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Measuring global and country-specific uncertainty
Ozturk, Ezgi O.; Sheng, Xuguang - 2017
Motivated by the literature on the capital asset pricing model, we decompose the uncertainty of a typical forecaster into common and idiosyncratic uncertainty. Using individual survey data from the Consensus Forecasts over the period of 1989-2014, we develop monthly measures of macroeconomic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011748782
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Are Currency Crises Predictable? : A Test
Pattillo, Catherine A. - 1998
This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been to predict the Asian crisis? The results are mixed but somewhat encouraging. One...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400560
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Population Aging and Global Capital Flows in a Parallel Universe
Brooks, Robin - 2000
world regions to simulate the effects of historical and projected demographic trends on international capital flows. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403503