Showing 51 - 60 of 1,638
This paper examines the performance of World Economic Outlook (WEO) growth forecasts for 2004-17. Short-term real GDP …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012796831
This paper develops a panel unobserved components model of the monetary transmission mechanism in the world economy …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403179
Several authors have recently investigated the predictability of exchange rates by fitting a sequence of long-horizon error-correction regressions. By considering the implied vector error-correction model, we show that little is to be gained from estimating such regressions for horizons greater...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403313
The World Economic Outlook (WEO) exercise at the IMF evolved during the 1980s, partly in response to demands by … important element in their efforts to keep abreast of world economic developments and prospects. Direct and indirect feedback …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403358
We develop an early-warning model of sovereign debt crises. A country is defined to be in a debt crisis if it is classified as being in default by Standard & Poor''s, or if it has access to nonconcessional IMF financing in excess of 100 percent of quota. By means of logit and binary recursive...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403985
Previous early-warning systems (EWSs) for currency crises have relied on models that require a priori dating of crises. This paper proposes an alternative EWS, based on a Markov-switching model, which identifies and characterizes crisis periods endogenously; this also allows the model to utilize...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014404016
I test whether inflation targeting (IT) enhances transparency using inflation forecast data for 11 IT adoption countries. IT adoption promotes convergence in forecast errors, suggesting that it enhances transparency. This effect is robust to dropping observations, is strengthened by using...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400154
This paper proposes an approach to track US$1 trillion of emerging market government debt held by foreign investors in local and hard currency, based on a similar approach that was used for advanced economies (Arslanalp and Tsuda, 2012). The estimates are constructed on a quarterly basis from...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014411133
risks associated with increased cross-border capital flows and greater integration with the rest of the world …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014411153
We create a network of bilateral correlations of changes in sovereign bond yields and individual bank equity price changes since 2000. We extract some stylized facts from this network of asset price correlations and document the clear differences in asset price correlations between safe havens...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014411222