-recession years are revised slowly; in recession years, the pace of revision picks up but not sufficiently to avoid large forecast …

An essential element of the work of the Fund is to monitor and forecast international trade. This paper uses SWIFT … messages on letters of credit, together with crude oil prices and new export orders of manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index … (PMI), to improve the short-term forecast of international trade. A horse race between linear regressions and machine …

show that optimism bias is greater the longer the forecast horizon … recently experienced strong growth. Using long-term forecasts of economic growth from the IMF/World Bank staff Debt … international growth experience. Further, by comparing the IMF’s World Economic Outlook forecasts with actual growth outcomes, we …

investments at home and abroad. Our firm-level dataset shows an important home bias in productive investments. Part of this … affiliates of the same industrial group however accounts for the lion''s share of the home bias. Moreover, French firms …