documents of the following years to understand the evolution of fiscal forecast errors. Our findings suggest that: (i) for most … terms of drivers, we show that forecast errors for the fiscal balance-to-GDP ratio are positively correlated with GDP growth … and terms of trade changes and negatively with GDP deflator surprises; (iv) forecast errors for public debt-to-GDP ratios …

An essential element of the work of the Fund is to monitor and forecast international trade. This paper uses SWIFT … (PMI), to improve the short-term forecast of international trade. A horse race between linear regressions and machine …

-recession years are revised slowly; in recession years, the pace of revision picks up but not sufficiently to avoid large forecast …

Financial crises pose unique challenges for forecast accuracy. Using the IMF's Monitoring of Fund Arrangement (MONA … informational value as they consistently outperform naive forecast approaches. However, we also document that there is room for … improvement: two thirds of the key macroeconomic variables that we examine are forecast inefficiently and 6 variables (growth of …

several traditional models of investment, we forecast that the U.S. investment in equipment and software will grow by about 10 …

An analysis of mutual-fund-level flow data into EM bond and equity markets confirms that different types of funds … behave differently. Bond funds are more sensitive to global factors and engage more in return chasing than equity funds …

fundamentals and/or external variables-have contributed to the surge in external bond issuance by these LICs, which we refer to in … our paper as 'frontier economies'. Using data on public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) external bond issuance, outstanding … PPG bond stock, as well as sovereign spreads, we employ panel data analysis to examine factors related to the increase in …