contributors to overall inflation forecast errors. Perhaps more importantly, relatively small core inflation forecast errors appear …Against the backdrop of an ongoing review of the inflation-targeting framework, this paper examines the real …-time inflation forecasts of the Bank of Canada with the aim of identifying potential areas for improvement. Not surprisingly, the …

on monopoly markup fall short since inflation remained low after 2009. This paper contributes strong evidence of Granger …

This paper develops an approach for forecasting in Thailand core inflation. The key innovation is to anchor the … projections derived from the short-term time-series properties of core inflation to its longer-run evolution. This involves … goodness-of-fit criteria, with an equilibrium-correction model that pins down the convergence of core inflation to its longer …

drivers of the predictions include high levels of unrest, food price inflation and mobile phone penetration, which accord with …

documents of the following years to understand the evolution of fiscal forecast errors. Our findings suggest that: (i) for most … terms of drivers, we show that forecast errors for the fiscal balance-to-GDP ratio are positively correlated with GDP growth … and terms of trade changes and negatively with GDP deflator surprises; (iv) forecast errors for public debt-to-GDP ratios …

An essential element of the work of the Fund is to monitor and forecast international trade. This paper uses SWIFT … (PMI), to improve the short-term forecast of international trade. A horse race between linear regressions and machine …

-recession years are revised slowly; in recession years, the pace of revision picks up but not sufficiently to avoid large forecast …