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Granger predictability of oil prices after the Great Recession
Benk, Szilárd; Gillman, Max - 2019
Real oil prices surged from 2009 through 2014, comparable to the 1970's oil shock period. Standard explanations based on monopoly markup fall short since inflation remained low after 2009. This paper contributes strong evidence of Granger (1969) predictability of nominal factors to oil prices,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154675
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Forecasting Accuracy of Crude Oil Futures Prices
Kumar, Manmohan S. - 1991
This paper undertakes an investigation into the efficiency of the crude oil futures market and the forecasting accuracy of futures prices. Efficiency of the market is analysed in terms of the expected excess returns to speculation in the futures market. Accuracy of futures prices is compared...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014395895
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Where should we go? : internet searches and tourist arrivals
Cevik, Serhan - 2020
results indicate that the forecast model incorporating internet search data provides additional information about tourist …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012170113
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Riding the energy transition : oil beyond 2040
Cherif, Reda; Hasanov, Fuad; Pande, Aditya - 2017
Recent technological developments and past technology transitions suggest that the world could be on the verge of a profound shift in transportation technology. The return of the electric car and its adoption, like that of the motor vehicle in place of horses in early 20th century, could cut oil...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011704548
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Forecasting social unrest : a machine learning approach
Redl, Chris; Hlatshwayo, Sandile - 2021
We produce a social unrest risk index for 125 countries covering a period of 1996 to 2020. The risk of social unrest is based on the probability of unrest in the following year derived from a machine learning model drawing on over 340 indicators covering a wide range of macro-financial,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012796240
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Energy transition metals
Boer, Lukas; Pescatori, Andrea; Stuermer, Martin - 2021
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012796674
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Authorities' fiscal forecasts in Latin America : are they optimistic?
Hadzi-Vaskov, Metodij; Ricci, Luca Antonio; Werner, … - 2021
documents of the following years to understand the evolution of fiscal forecast errors. Our findings suggest that: (i) for most … terms of drivers, we show that forecast errors for the fiscal balance-to-GDP ratio are positively correlated with GDP growth … and terms of trade changes and negatively with GDP deflator surprises; (iv) forecast errors for public debt-to-GDP ratios …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012612338
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Predicting fiscal crises : a machine learning approach
Hellwig, Klaus-Peter - 2021
In this paper I assess the ability of econometric and machine learning techniques to predict fiscal crises out of sample. I show that the econometric approaches used in many policy applications cannot outperform a simple heuristic rule of thumb. Machine learning techniques (elastic net, random...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012612343
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Improving the short-term forecast of world trade during the Covid-19 pandemic using SWIFT data on letters of credit
Carton, Benjamin; Hu, Nan; Mongardini, Joannes; Moriya, Kei - 2020
An essential element of the work of the Fund is to monitor and forecast international trade. This paper uses SWIFT … (PMI), to improve the short-term forecast of international trade. A horse race between linear regressions and machine …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012392595
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How to improve inflation forecasting in Canada
Matheson, Troy - 2019
contributors to overall inflation forecast errors. Perhaps more importantly, relatively small core inflation forecast errors appear …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012103690