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Improving the short-term forecast of world trade during the Covid-19 pandemic using SWIFT data on letters of credit
Carton, Benjamin; Hu, Nan; Mongardini, Joannes; Moriya, Kei - 2020
An essential element of the work of the Fund is to monitor and forecast international trade. This paper uses SWIFT … (PMI), to improve the short-term forecast of international trade. A horse race between linear regressions and machine …-learning algorithms for the world and 40 large economies shows that forecasts based on linear regressions often outperform those based on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012392595
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External liabilities and crises
Catão, Luis; Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria - 2013
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009756807
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The External Balance Assessment (EBA) methodology
Phillips, Steven T.; Catão, Luis; Ricci, Luca Antonio; … - 2013
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010389823
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Energy transition metals
Boer, Lukas; Pescatori, Andrea; Stuermer, Martin - 2021
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012796674
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Granger predictability of oil prices after the Great Recession
Benk, Szilárd; Gillman, Max - 2019
Real oil prices surged from 2009 through 2014, comparable to the 1970's oil shock period. Standard explanations based on monopoly markup fall short since inflation remained low after 2009. This paper contributes strong evidence of Granger (1969) predictability of nominal factors to oil prices,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154675
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Measuring global and country-specific uncertainty
Ozturk, Ezgi O.; Sheng, Xuguang - 2017
Motivated by the literature on the capital asset pricing model, we decompose the uncertainty of a typical forecaster into common and idiosyncratic uncertainty. Using individual survey data from the Consensus Forecasts over the period of 1989-2014, we develop monthly measures of macroeconomic...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011748782
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The level REER model in the external balance assessment (EBA) methodology
Mano, Rui; Osorio Buitron, Carolina; Ricci, Luca Antonio; … - 2019
This paper offers an empirical model of the drivers of the level of the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) that is now part of the IMF's methodology for the assessment of external positions, including exchange rates. It constructs a measure of the level of the REER and it offers a panel...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012103681
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Are Currency Crises Predictable? : A Test
Pattillo, Catherine A. - 1998
This paper evaluates three models for predicting currency crises that were proposed before 1997. The idea is to answer the question: if we had been using these models in late 1996, how well armed would we have been to predict the Asian crisis? The results are mixed but somewhat encouraging. One...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400560
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Population Aging and Global Capital Flows in a Parallel Universe
Brooks, Robin - 2000
world regions to simulate the effects of historical and projected demographic trends on international capital flows. The …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403503
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Comparing Projections and Outcomes of IMF-Supported Programs
Phillips, Steven - 2001
“Program numbers” from a sample of IMF-supported programs are studied as if they were forecasts, through statistical analyses of the relationship between projections and outcomes for growth, inflation, and three balance of payments concepts. Statistical bias is found only for projections of...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401615