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Granger predictability of oil prices after the Great Recession
Benk, Szilárd; Gillman, Max - 2019
Real oil prices surged from 2009 through 2014, comparable to the 1970's oil shock period. Standard explanations based on monopoly markup fall short since inflation remained low after 2009. This paper contributes strong evidence of Granger (1969) predictability of nominal factors to oil prices,...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012154675
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World Crude Oil Markets : Monetary Policy and the Recent Oil Shock
Krichene, Noureddine - 2006
This paper examines the relationship between monetary policy and oil prices within a world oil demand and supply model … interest rates led to high oil price volatility in 2005. Data shows that world economic growth and price stability require …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400520
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Peaks, Spikes, and Barrels : Modeling Sharp Movements in Oil Prices
Pant, Malika - 2010
Global oil markets were roiled by sharp price swings in 2008, and economists are still divided over the reasons for the unusual volatility. Those emphasizing fundamentals point to inelastic supply and demand curves, others view the phenomenon mostly as a result of financial investors flocking...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403156
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Transitory and permanent shocks in the global market for crude oil
Rebei, Nooman; Sbia, Rashid - 2020
This paper documents the determinants of real oil price in the global market based on SVAR model embedding transitory and permanent shocks on oil demand and supply as well as speculative disturbances. We find evidence of significant differences in the propagation mechanisms of transitory versus...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012251290
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Oil prices and the global economy : is it different this time around?
Mohaddes, Kamiar; Pesaran, M. Hashem - 2016
The recent plunge in oil prices has brought into question the generally accepted view that lower oil prices are good for the United States and the global economy. In this paper, using a quarterly multi-country econometric model, we first show that a fall in oil prices tends relatively quickly to...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011715551
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Improving the short-term forecast of world trade during the Covid-19 pandemic using SWIFT data on letters of credit
Carton, Benjamin; Hu, Nan; Mongardini, Joannes; Moriya, Kei - 2020
An essential element of the work of the Fund is to monitor and forecast international trade. This paper uses SWIFT … (PMI), to improve the short-term forecast of international trade. A horse race between linear regressions and machine …-learning algorithms for the world and 40 large economies shows that forecasts based on linear regressions often outperform those based on …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012392595
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Energy transition metals
Boer, Lukas; Pescatori, Andrea; Stuermer, Martin - 2021
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012796674
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Issues in Domestic Petroleum Pricing in Oil-Producing Countries
Gupta, Sanjeev - 2002
This paper discusses issues relating to the domestic pricing of petroleum in oil-producing countries. It finds that in most major oil-exporting countries, government policies keep domestic prices below free-market levels, resulting in implicit subsidies that equaled 3.0 percent of GDP, on...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401649
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On the Sources of Oil Price Fluctuations
Unalmis, Deren - 2009
framework. It models a small open economy and the rest of the world together to discover both accompanying effects of oil price …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402212
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The Macroeconomic Effects of Higher Oil Prices
Isard, Peter - 2001
The paper uses MULTIMOD to analyze the macroeconomic effects of oil price shocks, distinguishing between temporary, more persistent, and permanent shocks. It provides perspectives on several findings in the literature and the key role of monetary policy in influencing macroeconomic outcomes....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403624