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Another piece of the puzzle : adding SWIFT data on documentary collections to the short-term forecast of world trade

Ghazaryan, Narek; Goumilevski, Alexei; Mongardini, Joannes - 2021

international trade. While SWIFT documentary collections accounted for just over one percent of world trade financing in 2020, they … have strong explanatory power to forecast world trade and national trade in selected economies. The informational content … from documentary collections helps improve the forecast of world trade, while a horse race with machine learning algorithms …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012794915

Improving the short-term forecast of world trade during the Covid-19 pandemic using SWIFT data on letters of credit

Carton, Benjamin; Hu, Nan; Mongardini, Joannes; Moriya, Kei - 2020

-learning algorithms for the world and 40 large economies shows that forecasts based on linear regressions often outperform those based on …

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012392595

Predicting fiscal crises : a machine learning approach

Hellwig, Klaus-Peter - 2021

In this paper I assess the ability of econometric and machine learning techniques to predict fiscal crises out of sample. I show that the econometric approaches used in many policy applications cannot outperform a simple heuristic rule of thumb. Machine learning techniques (elastic net, random...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012612343

Illuminating economic growth

Hu, Yingyao; Yao, Jiaxiong - 2019

This paper seeks to illuminate the uncertainty in official GDP per capita measures using auxiliary data. Using satellite-recorded nighttime lights as an additional measurement of true GDP per capita, we provide a statistical framework, in which the error in official GDP per capita may depend on...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012019789

Investor sentiment, sovereign debt mispricing, and economic outcomes

Al Amine, Ramzy; Willems, Tim - 2020

We find that countries which are able to borrow at spreads that seem low given fundamentals (for example because investors take a bullish view on a country's future), are more likely to develop economic difficulties later on. We obtain this result through a two-stage procedure, where a first...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012301895

Authorities' fiscal forecasts in Latin America : are they optimistic?

Hadzi-Vaskov, Metodij; Ricci, Luca Antonio; Werner, … - 2021

Do governments in Latin America tend to be optimistic when preparing budgetary projections? We address this question by constructing a novel dataset of the authorities' fiscal forecasts in six Latin American economies using data from annual budget documents over the period 2000-2018. In turn, we...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012612338

How to improve inflation forecasting in Canada

Matheson, Troy - 2019

Against the backdrop of an ongoing review of the inflation-targeting framework, this paper examines the real-time inflation forecasts of the Bank of Canada with the aim of identifying potential areas for improvement. Not surprisingly, the results show that errors in forecasting non-core...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012103690

Are labor market indicators telling the truth? : role of measurement error in the U.S. current population survey

Shibata, Ippei - 2019

Labor market indicators are critical for policymakers, but measurement error in labor force survey data is known to be substantial. In this paper, I quantify the implications of classification errors in the U.S. Current Population Survey (CPS), in which respondents misreport their true labor...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012009388

Commercial property price indexes : problems of sparse data, spatial spillovers, and weighting

Silver, Mick S.; Graf, Brian - 2014

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010388650

Autocorrelation-Corrected Standard Errors in Panel Probits : An Application to Currency Crisis Prediction

Berg, Andrew - 2004

Many estimates of early-warning-system (EWS) models of currency crisis have reported incorrect standard errors because of serial correlation in the context of panel probit regressions. This paper documents the magnitude of the problem, proposes and tests a solution, and applies it to previously...

Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014404063

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