results indicate that the forecast model incorporating internet search data provides additional information about tourist …

thumb. Machine learning techniques (elastic net, random forest, gradient boosted trees) deliver significant improvements in …

This paper describes the CNB's experience implementing an inflation-forecast targeting (IFT) regime, and the building …

This paper reviews forestry reform in the Congo basin, focusing on Gabon. It argues that the key challenge for the … Congo basin countries is to manage their forests in a sustainable manner. It presents the current situation of forestry … taxation and forestry reform in Gabon. The paper analyzes optimal taxation in the forestry sector using a static model. The …

Countries generally tax the forestry sector to achieve the twin objectives of revenue maximization and sustainability … determine the price of extraction rights. However, a number of factors-including a lack of information on the forest resources …-have limited the use of auctions so far, particularly in low-income countries. To establish transparency of the forestry sector …

documents of the following years to understand the evolution of fiscal forecast errors. Our findings suggest that: (i) for most … terms of drivers, we show that forecast errors for the fiscal balance-to-GDP ratio are positively correlated with GDP growth … and terms of trade changes and negatively with GDP deflator surprises; (iv) forecast errors for public debt-to-GDP ratios …

An essential element of the work of the Fund is to monitor and forecast international trade. This paper uses SWIFT … (PMI), to improve the short-term forecast of international trade. A horse race between linear regressions and machine …

contributors to overall inflation forecast errors. Perhaps more importantly, relatively small core inflation forecast errors appear …