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This paper outlines an approach to assess uncertainty around a forecast baseline as well as the impact of alternative policy rules on macro variability. The approach allows for non-Gaussian shock distributions and non-linear underlying macroeconomic models. Consequently, the resulting...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012251371
forecasting applications of the estimated model are demonstrated, based on a novel Bayesian framework for conditioning on judgment …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403179
This paper revisits the cross-country growth empirics debate using a novel Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging framework to address model uncertainty in the context of a dynamic growth model in panel data with endogenous regressors. Our empirical findings suggest that once model...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402072
In this paper we propose a novel approach to obtain the predictive density of global GDP growth. It hinges upon a bottom-up probabilistic model that estimates and combines single countries' predictive GDP growth densities, taking into account cross-country interdependencies. Speci?cally, we...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012251413
, spillover analysis, and forecasting applications of the estimated model are demonstrated. These include quantifying the monetary …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012692504
This paper presents a ""bridge model"" for short-run (one or two quarters ahead) forecasting of Italian GDP, relying on … their simplicity and their good forecasting power, the framework may be usefully extended to other variables as well as to …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014403623
Model selection and forecasting in stress tests can be facilitated using machine learning techniques. These techniques … stress testing. Lasso regressions, in particular, are well suited for building forecasting models when the number of … over other model selection methods, and illustrates their application by constructing forecasting models of sectoral …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011704453
This paper analyzes the stochastic inventory control problem when the demand distribution is not known. In contrast to previous Bayesian inventory models, this paper adopts a non-parametric Bayesian approach in which the firm’s prior information is characterized by a Dirichlet process prior....
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014400239
analysis and forecasting applications of the estimated model are demonstrated, based on a Bayesian framework for conditioning …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014402675
This paper develops the theoretical background for the Limited Information Bayesian Model Averaging (LIBMA). The proposed approach accounts for model uncertainty by averaging over all possible combinations of predictors when making inferences about the variables of interest, and it...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10014401367