This paper examines the econometric causal model for policy analysis developed by the seminal ideas of Ragnar Frisch and Trygve Haavelmo. We compare the econometric causal model with two popular causal frameworks: Neyman-Holland causal model and the do-calculus. The Neyman-Holland causal model...

International large-scale assessments such as PISA are increasingly being used to benchmark the academic performance of young people across the world. Yet many of the technicalities underpinning these datasets are misunderstood by applied researchers, who sometimes fail to take their complex...

Recently, there has been much discussion about replicability and credibility. By integrating the full research record, increasing statistical power, reducing bias and enhancing credibility, meta-analysis is widely regarded as 'best evidence'. Through Monte Carlo simulation, closely calibrated on...

Causal inference in the empirical sciences is based on counterfactuals. This paper presents the counterfactual account of causation in terms of Lewis's possible-world semantics, and reformulates the statistical potential outcome framework and its underlying assumptions using counterfactual...

We use a new and exceptionally rich administrative data set for Germany to evaluate theemployment effects of a variety of public sponsored training programs in the early 2000s.Building on the work of Sianesi (2003, 2004), we employ propensity score matching methodsin a dynamic, multiple...

Die deutsche Arbeitsmarktpolitik ist im Zuge der Hartz-Reformen grundsätzlich neustrukturiert und systematisch evaluiert worden. Die vorliegenden Evaluationsberichte derersten drei Hartz-Gesetze belegen nun vielfach, welche Instrumente der aktivenArbeitsmarktpolitik sich durch ihre Wirksamkeit...

I study whether exposure to teachers' stereotypes, as measured by the Gender-Science Implicit Association Test, affects student achievement. I provide evidence that the gender gap in math performance substantially increases when students are assigned to teachers with stronger gender stereotypes....

Is there a reward for basic skills in the German labor market? To answer this question, we examine the relationship between literacy, numeracy and monthly gross earnings of full-time employed workers. We use data from the ALWA survey, augmented by test scores on basic cognitive skills as well as...