This paper examines the econometric causal model for policy analysis developed by the seminal ideas of Ragnar Frisch and Trygve Haavelmo. We compare the econometric causal model with two popular causal frameworks: Neyman-Holland causal model and the do-calculus. The Neyman-Holland causal model...

Recently, there has been much discussion about replicability and credibility. By integrating the full research record, increasing statistical power, reducing bias and enhancing credibility, meta-analysis is widely regarded as 'best evidence'. Through Monte Carlo simulation, closely calibrated on...

Causal inference in the empirical sciences is based on counterfactuals. This paper presents the counterfactual account of causation in terms of Lewis's possible-world semantics, and reformulates the statistical potential outcome framework and its underlying assumptions using counterfactual...

We use a new and exceptionally rich administrative data set for Germany to evaluate theemployment effects of a variety of public sponsored training programs in the early 2000s.Building on the work of Sianesi (2003, 2004), we employ propensity score matching methodsin a dynamic, multiple...

Die deutsche Arbeitsmarktpolitik ist im Zuge der Hartz-Reformen grundsätzlich neustrukturiert und systematisch evaluiert worden. Die vorliegenden Evaluationsberichte derersten drei Hartz-Gesetze belegen nun vielfach, welche Instrumente der aktivenArbeitsmarktpolitik sich durch ihre Wirksamkeit...

This paper introduces a novel approach for dealing with the curse of dimensionality in thecase of large linear dynamic systems. Restrictions on the coefficients of an unrestricted VARare proposed that are binding only in a limit as the number of endogenous variables tends toinfinity...

We use spline interpolation to approximate the subjective cumulative distribution function ofan economic agent over the future realization of a continuous (possibly censored) randomvariable. The method proposed exploits information collected using a small number ofprobability questions on...

This paper analyzes the role of the extensive vis-à-vis the intensive margin of labor adjustment in Germany and in the United States. The contribution is twofold. First, we provide an update of older U.S. studies and confirm the view that the extensive margin (i.e., the adjustment in the number...

We investigate the workforce heterogeneity of startups with respect to education, age and wages. Our explorative study uses data on the population of 1,614 Danish firms founded in 1998. We track these firms until 2001 which enables us to analyze changes in workforce composition over time. Such a...

Haavelmo's seminal 1943 paper is the first rigorous treatment of causality. In it, he distinguished the definition of causal parameters from their identification. He showed that causal parameters are de fined using hypothetical models that assign variation to some of the inputs determining...